The EU has announced the 18th package of penalties against Russiawhich mainly affect the oil sector and bankswhich manage the revenues of the sale of oil and gas. A package of sanctions that the EU is preparing to bring to the next table G7 in Canadawhich will be held next week (16-17 June 2025), in the hope of obtaining the Support of the United States.
“We want peace for Ukraine” – explained the President of the EU Ursula von der Leyen – “The goal of Russia is not peace, but imposing the power of strength. Therefore, we are increasing the pressure on Russia”.
“Our message is very clear: this war must end. We need a real fire and Russia must present itself at the negotiation table with a serious proposal,” added Von der Leyen, presenting the “severe sanctions” prepared against Moscow. Penalties that will have an impact on the oil market which also depends on the support offered by the United States.
The pack of EU sanctions
“We are targeting two sectors: the Russian energy sector and the Russian banking sector. We are expanding the prohibitions and export controls and strengthening the anti -lusion measures,” explained the resident, illustrating the details of the 18th package:
- Energy. As for energy, the EU proposes a ban on transit for the two Nord Stream Gasdotti e the lowering of the maximum roof of the oil price from 60 to 45 dollars to the barrel. Also introduced a prohibition on importing refined products Based on Russian crude oil to prevent this “reach the EU from the service door”. And, to better respect the maximum roof, in addition to the 342 oil tankers already under shooting, come additions 77 other ships who are part of the Russian shadow fleet. “These ships represent a means to evade the penalties,” explains the president.
- Banks. The second point of the “targeted the Russian banking sector, limiting the ability to raise funds and transactions”. The proposal is to transform the current prohibition to use The international SWIFT system in a total ban to be applied to More 22 Russian banks. In addition, there is a prohibition of transaction for financial operators of third countries that finance trade with Russia, eluding sanctions, and penalties to be paid by the Russian fund for direct investments.
- Export prohibition. The third point concerns further export prohibitions For a value of over 2.5 billion euro. This prohibition deprives the Russian economy of essential technologies and industrial goods, targeting machinery, metals, plastic materials and chemicals. The export of assets and technologies to dual use, used for the production of drones, missiles and other armaments are also limited.
- Penalties for another 22 companies. The EU expands the scope of the prohibition of existing transaction, adding a list of 22 other Russian and foreign companies that provide direct or indirect support to the Russian military and industrial complex.
What effects on the oil market?
The effects on the oil market could be of double nature. All It will depend on the support that the United States They will give to the European initiative and the ability to convince the market that Russia is truly isolated. From the introduction of the 60 dollar roof In 2023 – underlines Von der Leyen – i raw prices have gradually aligned themselves And today they quote just beyond this level on international squares. It is true that the discount tear has been favored by the OPEC strategy, which raised the productive shares to “punish” the “non -compliant” members to the sign policy.
However, the EU strategy is strongly dependent on the support of the United States. An opposite attitude of the US could in fact make EU’s efforts vain. But on the other hand, Putin’s ambiguous position compared to the ceasefire could convince Trump to offer his support, strengthening the effects of European sanctions.
The effects on prices of crude oil would be At first depressivebut the belief that Russia is isolated could later stimulate the Question for Shale Oil American, doing trace the prices international in the long run. A sufficient time to convince Moscow to the surrender.
The Russian economy it was deeply affected by the sanctions: 210 billion euros of reserves of the Russian central bank are immobilized; Russian oil and gas revenues decreased by almost 80% compared to before the war; The deficit is to the stars; Interest rates are prohibitive; inflation grows by over 10%; The price of imports of technologies and essential assets is six times higher than the pre -war one.
Raw prices just over 60 dollars
Oil prices on international markets are confirmed just above 60 dollarsalso favored by STRATEGY OF OPEC to lower the price to force the most fragile members to join the cartel policy.
The future over August on the Brent Exchanges to $ 66.75 per barrel, not very varied compared to the eve, keeping a drop from the beginning of the year more than 10%. The contract on WTI On delivery July exchanges at $ 64.90 per barrel, also in a very slight reduction, bringing the difference from the beginning of the year to almost -9%.
