The prices of the petroliumbut the reaction appears once again more contained than it was expected, with raises that are around the dollar both for the quality Brent that for the WTIagainst the 3-5 dollars expected by the experts. A signal that the market is not worried about the threat of closure of the Hormuz Strait, which seems to many a bluff rather than a realistic hypothesis, and which discounts the balance effect produced by the policy of Increase in the offer launched byOPEC+.
The prices of crude oil
The week starts with a rise in the price of crude oil contained. The new September contract on Brent exchanges at 76.63 dollars to the barrel, up $ 1.16 (+1.5%) compared to the previous closure, while the contract for August delivery on WTI exchanges at 75.02 dollars to the barrel, increase of 1.20 dollars (+1.6%) compared to the previous one. And to think that on the weekend an immership was expected between 3 and 5 dollars in response to the US-Iran escalation.
So far, the reaction of oil was very contained: in the week of crossed bombing Israel-Iran there has been an increase in prices in the order of 4-6%, while for the beginning of the years the difference is +3-5%.
The possibility of falling the regime
The hypotheses dThe falls of the Khamenei Ali regime. A hypothesis not remote and ventilated by the same Trumpafter the attack on the three Iranian nuclear sites of Fordo, Natanz and Esfahan.
“It is not politically correct to use the term ‘change of regime’, but if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran again big, Why shouldn’t there be a change of regime?“
He posted the US leader, adding Miga and paraphrasing his slogan to adapt it to Iran (Make Iran Great Again).
The closing of Hormuz a bluff
In response, Tehran threatened the closure of the Hormuz Strait, from which about a quarter of the world oil demand transit, equal to about 20 million barrels per day. A hypothesis that would double or even triple the prices of oil, as happened in the past every time the threat has also been ventilated. So much JP Morgan He has already talked about the possibility of a Relzo of the price of crude oil between 130 and 170 dollars If a “bolt” were to materialize.
In reality, the hypothesis of closing the Strait of Hormuz appears somewhat unlikely, because it would first bring Iran first. The Vice -president of the United States JD Vance, In an interview, speaking a “Suicidal action“.
“Their entire economy passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If they want to destroy it and cause disorders in the world, I think it would be their choice”
He said Vance, adding “But why should they do it? I don’t think it makes any sense”.
A hypothesis shared by the president of Nomisma Energia, Davide Tabrelliaccording to which the prices of crude oil are almost stable, despite some small raall push. According to the expert, the closure of the Hormuz Strait could make crude oil rise up to $ 200, but it is An “extreme” and “unlikely” hypothesis.
Whenever a change of regime has made crude oil hold
According to a historical analysis by JP Morganfrom 1979 to today they occurred eight regime changes In the main countries producing oil that have made the prices renounce, making prices rise on average of 76% on the maximum peak, and then stabilized at a rise of about 30% at the pre-crisis levels.
For example, oil prices are almost tripled from mid 1979 to mid -1980safter the Iranian revolution deposed the scià and brought the Islamic Republic to power and this triggered a world economic recession.
Among the most recent cases there is the Play of Gaddafi in Libyawho made oil prices from 93 dollars to the barrel in January 2011 at 130 dollars per barrel in April of the same year. This coincided with the European debt crisis and recession global.
But a change of regime in Iran would have a much greater impact of Libya on the oil market and on the global economy.
