After the series of increases that characterized the second part of 2025, OPEC decided to leave crude oil production stable, waiting to understand what the best strategy will be to face 2026 and 2027, but above all to iron out the current differences between producers. Faced with the broader cartel (OPEC Plus), which also includes Russia, there is a market full of unknowns, characterized by an excess of supply and also distorted by US and EU sanctions on Russia. In fact, if “peace” in Ukraine were to lead to the removal of sanctions, a sea of Russian crude oil would flood Europe, causing prices, already very low, to collapse further.
What OPEC decided
The 40th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting, meeting in person in Vienna, decided to keep the oil market and the current production level stable until 31 December 2026. An expected decision, according to ING analysts.
At the same time, the cartel confirmed the mandate to the Monitoring Committee, which is to meet every two months, with the assistance of the OPEC Secretariat, to carefully examine global oil market conditions and production levels. The Committee may hold additional meetings or call an OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting at any time to address market developments.
The OPEC countries have also given a favorable opinion to the flexible mechanism developed by the OPEC secretariat, to evaluate the maximum sustainable production capacity for individual members of the cartels, to be used as a reference to define production levels in 2027.
The mechanism, according to ING analysts, “could certainly lead to disagreements between members, with some countries eager to guarantee higher production bases”, but at least for now, it irons out differences between Saudi Arabia, which aims to increase production, and the cartel countries that are unable to produce more and would like higher prices such as Nigeria and Angola.
Finally, the cartel reiterated the importance of ensuring full compliance with the decisions taken and adhering to the compensation mechanism and set an appointment for 7 June 2026.
Voluntary cuts confirmed for the 1st quarter of 2026
This means that the eight OPEC Plus members who previously joined the voluntary cuts – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman – and who were gradually restoring production in recent months, have agreed to maintain the current level until the end of the first quarter of 2026.
As a result, the blockade, which last month and the previous one had increased production by 137 thousand barrels, stops the progressive increases and confirms the maintenance of production cuts for 3.24 million barrels.
Crude oil prices on the rise
Meanwhile, the oil market accepted OPEC’s decision with euphoria, pushing crude oil prices higher. The February Brent contract gained 1.73% to 63.43 dollars a barrel, while US Light Crude showed an increase of 1.84% to 59.62 usd/barrel. However, these are the lows of the year, with prices set to close by more than 16% at the end of 2025.
