Second consecutive quarter of stagnation for the Italian GDP. The economy of our country, throughout the second half of the year, has failed to grow, making it mark, according to the data Istata substantial equality. The result is that the early year estimates for the increase in the gross domestic product have halved, going from +1% of the DEF to +0.5% estimated by the statistics institute.
In the comment to the data, however, there is a detail that could report a beginning of change of trend. The primary and tertiary sector, who recorded a contraction, were curbed the Italian economy. Instead, the secondary sector is slightly recovery, the industry, which in 2024 had to cross two important crises in two crucial segments for Italian industrial production, automotive and luxury.
Italian GDP is blocked
The Italian economy is starting towards a phase of stagnation. In the last three months of 2024 the growth of the GDP detected by theIstat It was nothing, exactly as happened in the third quarter. A period that gives continuity to the last two and a half years, during which the gross domestic product of Italy has increased only by 0.7%.
After the push of the post pandemic recovery of Covid-19, the Italian economy has slowed significantly, as the data clearly show Istat summary of the last 12 years. The last trimester of sensitive growth was the first of 2024, al +0.4%more than half of the total GDP increase from the second half of 2022 to today.
The main reasons of this situation, according to the comment of the statistics institute, are to be found in a decline in the internal question. Exports to abroad in fact compensate only a continuous decrease in purchases of companies and individuals in Italy, which slows down all sectors of the country’s economy.
Inflation Instead she returned to grow, albeit slightly, in the last months of the year. A figure that worries, because it could announce a period of stagflation, a phenomenon in which the increase in prices is not accompanied by economic growth, during which the purchasing power of families is put at risk.
The resumption of industry
Italian growth in 2024 should finally settle around the 0.5%. A figure halved with respect to the estimates that the government had presented in the Def at the beginning of the year and which had set itself the objective. In the second and third quarter in particular, the economy of our country had been slowed down by two serious industrial crises. The automotive, without incentives and struggling with the energy transition, had stopped. Luxury was showing the signs of growing hostility towards the West of two of his main markets: Russia and China.
This had made the secondary sector the weak point of the Italian economy. The drop in industrial production had slowed down the GDP, but in the fourth quarter it seems to have been a turnaround. The industry It is in fact the only sector that has grown up, while the tertiary sector, which for months has dragged the country’s economy avoiding the recession, is backward.
The final data on 2024 have yet to be processed, but if the temporary ones were confirmed, last year it would have another positive fact. In fact, it would be the first year since 2021 not to present even a flexion of the GDP flexion.