The trend of fuels in Italy represents one of the most delicate issues for families, businesses and political decision makers. If on the one hand the last few weeks have recorded a drop in prices for distributors, on the other the data confirm that the reduction is not enough to compensate for the dynamics of recent years.
In particular, according to Codacons processing on the official price lists, in five years the diesel has increased by 27%, while petrol rose by 21.7%. Numbers that translate into an additional expenditure of over 15 euros for a full green and 17.3 euros for a full of diesel in 2025 compared to 2020.
The paradox is evident: while the prices of crude oil have undergone a significant contraction in recent months, the prices have only been reduced to a minimal part, with margins of descent still wide.
How to interpret data on the trend of fuel prices
According to the photograph of the prices provided by the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Safety (Mase), in the week of August, petrol stood at € 1.701 per liter, while the diesel for 1.631 euros/liter. A level so lower than the peaks touched in the previous months, but still much higher than five years ago. In 2020, in fact, the price lists were at 1.398 euros/liter for green and 1,284 euros/liter for diesel.
Since the beginning of summer, the price of crude oil has recorded a reduction of more than 16%, linked both to the increase in production in some countries and to slow down the global demand. For this it was logical to expect a more decisive contraction of the price lists to the distributor. However, in the same period, the Italian prices of petrol and diesel reduced just 2%.
This situation cannot be justified only by an “inflation effect”. There are several structural factors to weigh, which for years have characterized the fuel market in Italy. For example, excise duties and VAT are a significant share of the final price and influence it, but there is also the problem of a too rigid distribution chain, so when the oil price drops, the discounts are reflected in the price lists with considerable delay, while the increases are transferred almost in real time. To this, are added the speculations and the complex geopolitical dynamics, which amplify the volatility of prices.
The result is a system in which consumers end up paying more and more, regardless of international oscillations.
The weight on families and the economy
If the average increases in petrol and diesel prices are multiplying for the millions of travel made during the summer exodus, you arrive at a total figure of hundreds of millions of euros subtracted from the portfolio of the families. A room that adds to a context already burdened by food and energy inflation.
Furthermore, fuel does not affect only the direct expenditure of those who use the car. Transport costs influence the prices of goods and services along the entire production and logistics chain. From bread on the shelves to the package delivered at home, almost everything moves by rubber: that’s why the increases in petrol and diesel have a multiplier effect on the entire economy.
What to expect in the coming months
In the coming months, the theme of fuels will continue to be at the center of the economic and political debate for at least three crucial reasons.
Firstly, petrol and diesel prices are a direct factor that influences the consumer price index. Consequently, their decrease would contribute significantly to slowing down general inflation. Conversely, each increase risks further feeding the price spiral, with repercussions on all sectors.
Secondly, Italian companies, especially those active in the logistics and transport sector, face a remarkable competitive disadvantage. The costs of fuels, often higher than other European countries, weigh on corporate financial statements, making it more difficult to compete on the international market.
In this context, the reduction of international prices represents a missed opportunity. A decisive drop could have lightened the weight on families, stimulate consumption and improve the competitiveness of the production system.
Until these anomalies will not be addressed with targeted policies – greater transparency, revision of taxation, more stringent checks on speculative dynamics – a paradox will remain valid: the prices of fuels in Italy could (and should) lower, but they remain substantially the same.
