Positive stock markets awaiting Trump’s inauguration

Positive week for global stock marketswith investors who were comforted by the publication of some macroeconomic data (government bond yields took a breather both in Europe and in the United States with central bank assessments more accommodating compared to last Friday) and by the solid quarterly reports of the giants US banks (with the market rally at the end of 2024 which sent investment banking commissions soaring).

Trump’s policies

Investors’ attention is now focused on the developments of US politics. President-elect Donald Trump takes office at the White House on Monday and is expected to hear his plans for tax cuts, tariffs, regulations and immigration during his inauguration speech.

“Next week is a holiday week in the United States, but we don’t expect it to be a quiet week – said Mark Dowding, Fixed Income CIO at RBC BlueBay – In the next few days there will be lots of noise from Washington and it will be interesting to see the impact on markets, both domestic and foreign.” US stock markets will be closed on Monday, January 20, due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

The economic scenario for the next few quarters will be conditioned by the grounding of the new administration’s program, while i Treasury in the short term they could still show volatile valuations. As for the dollarinvestors take for granted the progressive misalignment between the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB, with expectations indicating an inevitable drop in rates in Europe, in order not to further aggravate the ongoing economic slowdown, compared to a greater caution of the American institute.

The signals from the ECB and the Fed

In recent days, important signals have arrived from the two largest central banks on the planet. Come on Minutes of the European Central Bank meeting (ECB) of 11-12 December 2024 found that members were “increasingly confident that inflation would return to target in the first half of 2025, earlier than expected in previous projections”. At the same time, in discussions about the performance of the economy, it emerged that the dominant risk is “linked to increased fragmentation and trade protectionism, particularly in the United States” under the new President Donald Trump.

From the Beige Book of Fed prepared for the FOMC on 28-29 January, it emerged that economic activity grew slightly in most Districts in November and December, with mixed signals between sectors. Inflationary risks related to tariffs continue to be a concern for many businesses.

Today’s session in Europe

In the sEuropean stock exchange dinnertoday in the spotlight Frankfurt, with a large increase of 1.20%, positive trend for London, which advances by a discreet +1.35%, and well-bought Paris, which marks a strong increase of 0.98%.

Earnings day for the Milan Stock Exchange, with the FTSE MIBwhich shows a capital gain of 1.25%, consolidating the series of four consecutive increases, which began last Tuesday; along the same lines, the FTSE Italia All-Share gained 1.26% compared to the previous session, closing at 38,467 points. The FTSE Italia Mid Cap is effervescent (+1.53%); along the same lines, the FTSE Italia Star rose (+0.73%).

According to Piazza Affari, the exchange value in the latest it was equal to 3.52 billion euros, with an increase of 538.4 million euros, equal to 18.07% compared to the previous 2.98 billion; while the volumes traded went from 0.57 billion shares in the previous session to 0.58 billion shares on 01/17/2025.

At the top of the rankings most important titles of Milan, we find Iveco (+5.72%), Buzzi (+4.32%), Azimut (+2.95%) and Stellantis (+2.80%). The worst performances, however, were recorded on Amplifon, which closed at -1.54%. Modest decline for Saipem, which dropped a small -0.58%.