A positive week ends for global stock markets, including real estate indices, with the majority of analysts expecting at least another cut in American interest rates by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year. Decisions on the cost of borrowing directly influence the cost of credit and, consequently, demand in the real estate market.
The FOMC appears fragmented
However, internal fragmentation and political pressures make a clear forecast difficult. In essence, the central bank led by Jerome Powell will move cautiously, balancing inflation and employment, without predefined commitments.
Already in December, expectations of a rate cut were rekindled by the words of the president of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, stating that the central bank can reduce the cost of money “in the short term” without compromising the objective of bringing inflation back to 2%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also said he was in favor of cutting interest rates in December. “My concern is mainly about the labor market, in relation to our dual mandate. So I propose a rate cut at the next meeting,” said Waller, who is tipped as Powell’s most likely successor. Other officials, such as Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed prefer to keep rates stable.
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector in the Milanese square closed the eighth in positive territory with the FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index rising by 2.3%. The performance of the sector is also good, at a European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index gaining 2%.
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, Abitare IN achieved the best performance and rose by 6.4%. IGD also increased by 3.2%. Timid rise for Brioschi (+0.3%). On the downside, we find Gabetti (-4.2%), Aedes (-1.7%) and Risanamento (-1%). Next Re’s decline was fractional (-0.6%)
Macroeconomic data
Mortgage applications are increasing in the United States. In the week to 21 November, the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications recorded an increase of 0.5%, after the -5.2% recorded the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests fell by 5.7%, while that relating to new applications rose by 7.6%. According to what is known by the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), rates on thirty-year mortgages increased to 6.40% from the previous 6.37%.
Home sales are increasing in the United States, according to the numbers that emerge from purchase agreements, an indicator of the prospective trend of the real estate and mortgage markets. In October, the pending home sales index, published by the Association of Real Estate Operators (NAR), recorded an increase of 1.9% on a monthly basis, reaching 76.3 points after the +0.1% recorded in September. The figure compares with the +0.5% expected by analysts.
US home price growth slows in September. The S&P Case-Shiller index, which measures the price trend in the main twenty metropolitan areas of the United States, showed an increase on an annual basis of 1.4%, slowing down compared to the +1.6% of the previous month and the +2.9% expected by the consensus. On a monthly basis there was a decrease of 0.5%. The seasonally adjusted index rose 0.1% on a monthly basis.
Sector studies
The first half of 2025 sees a growth in volumes of 9.5% at a national level, compared to the same period of 2024, according to data released by the Revenue Agency analyzed by the Tecnocasa Group Research Office. There were 373,395 residential transactions. The market confirms its positive momentum. The fall in rates and the increase in rents stimulate sales. The capital cities recorded an increase in trade of 9.2%, the non-capital cities of 9.6%. Among the large cities, Verona stands out with an increase in transactions of 13.8%, followed by Turin with +11.7%. Milan closes with +6.8%, the capital with +7.0%. The only city with a slight decrease is Florence (-0.9%).
