A week closes great suffering for the titles of the real estate sectorlisted in Piazza Affari and, in Europe, with the escalation of the commercial war triggered by the so -called “mutual” duties The US President Donald Trump: the last move of Beijing that responded to the raising of American duties, brought to 145%, with a return increase at 125%. The spirits mid -week were a little raised in the wake of the Tycoon decision to pause, for 90 days, the new duties for all countries, except China, but in the background the persistent concerns remain for the effects that the commercial policy of the US duties will have on the global economy.
The trend of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector on the Milanese square lived a strongly bearish week with the index FTSE ITALY All Share Real Estate which brings home a 3.4%descent, limiting the drop compared to what is recorded by the sector, at European level, with the index Stoxx 600 Real Estate Flexion of 7.2%.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed in Piazza Affari, IGD marks a 4.5%drop, followed by Gabetti in braking of 3%. Down, also, Aedes (-1.1%) e Live in (-0.8%). On the side of the rise, they are positioned Rehabilitation uphill of 4.9% e Brioschi of 4.2%.
Macroeconomic data
On the macroeconomic front, mortgage applications bounce in the USA. In the week to 4 April 2025the index that measures the volume of mortgage loan applications records an increase of 20%, after the decrease of 1.6% of the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests has risen by 35.3%, while that relating to the new questions rose by 9.2%. There Mortgage bankers associations (Mba), indicated that the rates on thirty -year mortgages dropped to 6.61% from 6.70% previous.
The generalized drop in rates, linked toeconomic uncertainty and the volatility of the marketspushed many borrowers to act quickly, he explained Joel KanDeputy Chief Economist of MBA. The average value of a refinancing mortgage has risen to 399,600 dollars, the second highest recorded by the survey. The share of refinancing requests reached 43.6% of the total, growing compared to 38.6% of the week before. The average rate on jumbo mortgages (mortgage loans that exceed the limits established by the US federal agencies) fell to 6.65%, that on loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration at 6.33%, while the rate on mortgages at 15 fell to 5.93%. Even variable rate mortgages (ARM) have seen a drop in rates and now represent 8.6% of total requests.
THE houses of houses in the United Kingdom They dropped by 0.5% to March 2025 (compared to -0.2% in February and +0.2% expected by analysts), according to the Halifax House Price Index. The average price of the properties is now 296,699 pounds (compared to 298,274 pounds of the previous month). Annual growth remains at +2.8%, unchanged compared to February. “The prices of the houses increased in January, since the buyers havetened to beat the expiry of the March Stamp in March – said Amanda Bryden, head of Halifax mortgages – However, with the conclusion of these agreements, the question is returning to normal and the new questions are slowing down. Our customers have completed all sales of houses in March that in January and February put together, including the most intense day. Explosion of activities, the prices of the houses, which remain close to the historic tops, are not surprisingly descended last month “. “Looking to the future, the potential buyers have yet to face the challenges of the new normality of higher loan costs, a limited supply supply available to choose from and an uncertain economic perspective – he added – however, with further basic rate cuts provided together with a positive growth of wages, the accessibility to mortgages should continue to improve gradually and therefore we still foresee a modest increase in the prices of the houses this year”.
Sector studies
In 2024 the share of Mutuators over 36which today represent 52.9% of the total. A change that reflects social and economic factors: The average age for the purchase of the first home has risen to 38.3 years, while the price of the houses recorded an increase of +10% in 2024. In parallel, the number of mono applicants also grows that light a mutual with high LTV, reaching 49% of the total, a sign of a change that sees the growth of the nuclei composed of a single person. It is the photograph taken by some Credit Risk in the “Report on loan-to-value high mortgages in 2024” which shows how these financing solutions, which cover more than 80% of the property value, represent more and more a fundamental support for the purchase of the first home, not only for the younger bands. Although the average income for single borrower has risen to 23,000 euros (+6.4% compared to 2023), the purchasing power It is struggling to keep up with the increase in the average price of the properties, which in 2024 reached 142,000 euros. The fixed rate mortgages remain the preferred choice by 84% of the borrowers, thanks to the stability of the installments. The average duration of the loans stands over 28 years, confirming the tendency to dilute the economic commitment over time to make the installments more sustainable. There Reduction of interest rates He also favored an increase in the average funded amount, increased by 12% compared to 2023. The relevance of high -high LTV solutions grows further with reference to highly energy efficiency or to be restored properties. The data on the so -called Green mortgages, in fact, show an average purchase price of a “green” house of 40% higher than a traditional mortgage, with an amount of financing on average higher than 35%. On the geographical planthe disbursements are mainly concentrated in the most populous regions: Lombardy leads 25.1%, followed by Piedmont (11.6%) and Lazio (10.2%). Large cities see an increase in both sales and prices, with Milan that records an average cost of homes of 41% higher than the region, touching 259,000 euros. Rome and Genoa are distinguished by the high concentration of the sales, totaling more than 50% of the total of their respective regions. In addition, Genoa is the only capital in which the average price is lower than the regional price, with a lower value than 12% than the Ligurian average. As for the subscription methodsthe direct channel is confirmed as the most used, with 60% of the mortgages provided directly by the banks without intermediaries, a trend that reflects a consolidated trust, by those who buy a house, towards banking institutions. “The adoption of financial instruments in line with market needs is essential for people to be supported in achieving important objectives such as access to the home owned – said Vittorio Bruno, Commercial and Underwriting Head, Italy of Qualis Credit Risk -. Financial operators are called to respond to the change of the market with solutions adequate to emerging needs. Studying the dynamics of the sector and grasping its evolutions is the first essential step is the first step. To deal with the challenges of the future of a society that continues to change “.
The Studies Office of the Tecnocasa Group has analyzed the sale made by the agencies on the national territory. In 2024 19% of purchases was made for investment, a percentage slightly decreasing compared to 2023. After the increases highlighted in 2022 and 2023, there is therefore a turnaround.
