Looking at the second half of the year, much will depend from the trend of commercial negotiations, from tax responses and from the dynamics of global growth. Underlines it Andrew Lake, Chief Investment Officer of Mirabaud Asset Management explaining that in particular, the following topics emerge:
Uncertainty about duties: a global risk revaluation
The return of protectionism led by the United States – explains the expert – acceleratedor volatility in developed and emerging markets. The duties acted as a tax for both consumers and companies, with potential legal consequences, in particular in the United States, where consumer trust remains fundamental. European and Asian politicians responded with tax stimuli and diplomatic coordination, while the share and bond markets have adapted to a more fragmented global commercial system.
For equity investors, The prospect of a prolonged interruption of trade has led to an increase in interest in companies with local supply chains, power of prices or defensive characteristics. In the bond sector, the selection of credit and regional differences are fundamental, since investors evaluate the balance between the risks of inflation and the reactivity of the central banks.
Risks of stagflation: Prack the most difficult path
Several analysts have highlighted the risk of a stagflation scenario, caRactorized by modest growth and renewed inflationary pressure, as one of the main macroeconomic scenarios for the second half of the semester. The factors that contribute to this context include interruptions in the supply chains caused by duties, the high sensitivity to energy prices and divergent monetary policies. This scenario complicates the definition of policies: the Federal Reserve has a reduced margin for cutting rates, while the European Central Bank seems more open to a further loosening in light of the weaker European data.
In this context, quality credit demand is growing, Defensive and real share sectors capable of preserving the value in a context of price volatility. Convertible bonds, high quality European actions and global inflation -resistant bond positions are gaining land.
Regional rotation: Europe is going on
One of the most obvious thematic changes was the improvement of the relative investment thesis of the DeglEuropean assets. The political support coordinated to Ukraine and moderate tax expansion, focused on infrastructure, innovation and health, are increasing the credibility of Europe as a geopolitical and economic counterweight to the United States. The result: a greater availability of investors To reconsider European share allocations and a rotation far from the risk of concentration perceived in the United States.
This trend is also found in fixed income, doThe possibility of further cuts in the rates by the ECB and the expectations of a decrease in inflation are creating a favorable context for European bonds.
Opportunities selected in a context of dispersion
Active management si is demonstratedto essential cOn the increasingly idiosyncratic markets. In the equity sector, the dispersion between and within the sectors is expanding. US cyclical securities could benefit from an inversion of tariff policy, while the securities related to infrastructure for artificial intelligence remain sensitive to the progress of capital investments. On the contrary, traditional defensive titles, such as pharmaceuticals and basic necessities, face political uncertainty and pressure on the margins.
Incredit marketsthe positioning has moved to superior quality titles and greater liquidity. There are interesting bottom-up opportunities in emerging markets, convertible securities and European credit Mid-caps, where evaluations could already serve significant negative news.
Divergences in monetary policies and currency volatility
The differences between the central banks, in particular betweento Fed and the ECB, They triggered currency volatility and a new demand for flexibility in wallets to adapt to macro evolutions. Investors are increasingly aware of the risk that coverage costs and unprotected exposure may evolve unpredictablely, strengthening the importance of dynamic risk management, concludes the expert.
