THE Eurozone state government bond yields I am slightly up In today’s session, characterized by large purchases on the stock market after the reversal of the US president Donald Trump on the duties against the European Union, to which he returned to grant time until July 9 to reach an agreement.
Spreads and returns
The spread It settles at 101 basis points, being the performance of the ten -year BTP Italian at 3.62% (+4 basic points) and that of the corresponding bund German at 2.61% (+4 basic points). The French tenth anniversary shows a return of 3.29%, the Spanish one of 3.23%, the Greek one of 3.35%.
Moody’s decision
The Italian secondary market benefits from Moody’s decision to bring the Outlook to Italy to positive from stable On Friday evening, while confirming the Baa3 rating. The uplook upgrade reflects the improvement of the budget prospects, in a context of tax performance better than expected in 2024 and of a stable internal political context, which increases the probability that the budget indicators continue to improve, in line with the structural plan of the medium -term budget of the government. The positive prospects are also supported by a solid labor market, solid budgets of families and businesses and a healthy banking sector.
Second Moody’sthe Italian debt affordability indicators will remain solid compared to those of government bonds with similar rating and the history of the country. Considering the long average expiry of the Italian debt (about seven years), the rating agency provides that the average cost of the loan will continue to grow gradually in the next five years. The ratio between interests and revenues will approach 9.5% by 2030, increasing compared to 8.2% in 2024. In the short term, the debt burden will increase in 2025 and 2026 due to the so-called stock-Flow adjustments (expenditure financed with debt but not counted in the deficit) of about 2% of the GDP per year, related to the superbonus. Public debt is expected to reach 138.4% of GDP in 2026 and 2027, increasing compared to 135.3% last year. From 2028 onwards, sustained primary surplus should lead to debt burden on a gradual drop.
The new BTP Italia
Today the treasure makes the Guaranteed minimum coupons of the new BTP Italiain placement from Tuesday 27 to Friday 30 May 2025 (except for early closure). This is the title of state indexed to the Italian inflation rate designed above all for the individual saver.
The new BTP Italia will have one duration of 7 years and an extra final prize equal to 1% For those who acquire the title to the issue and hold it until expiry, on June 4, 2032 The second phase will take place on the morning of May 30 and will only be reserved for institutional investors. Also for this security, taxation is facilitated at 12.5%. It is exempt from succession taxes, and, as required by Budget Law 2024, contributes to exclusion from the ISEE calculation of up to 50,000 euros invested in government bonds.
