Weak week for the real estate sector in a stock market context in which the attention of operators remained divided between signals coming from the geopolitical and macroeconomic side, from central bank operators and from the technology sector with a focus on the chip and artificial intelligence segment.
Among the drivers, an eye is on US inflation which has shown an acceleration in prices, albeit in line with expectations, continuing to put pressure on the Federal Reserve for an increase in interest rates for this year.
Added to all this, there are revived doubts as to whether the high valuations achieved by AI companies are excessive or not and whether the huge investments made will translate into adequate and long-lasting returns.
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector in the Milanese square closed the eighth in negative territory with the FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index marking a decline of around 1%, underperforming the sector, at a European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index gaining over 4%.
Focusing attention on individual stocks, the positive performance of Aedes emerges, marking a weekly increase of around 2%. while it contains IGD’s losses, not far from parity. Sales, however, on AbitareIn, down overall by over 2%, Risanamento (around -3.7%), Bastogi (around -6%) and Gabetti (over -9%).
The macro data of the week
Mortgage applications have started to rise again in the United States. In the week to 19 June, the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications increased by 1%, after -3.8% in the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests rose by 3%, while that relating to new applications recorded a slight decline of 0.1%. This was announced by the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), indicating that rates on 30-year mortgages have marginally reduced to 6.59% from 6.60%.
Also overseas, sales of new homes continue to decline in May. The data showed a decrease of 7.3% to 580 thousand units compared to the previous revised 626 thousand units, when a decrease of 5.7% was recorded (revised upwards compared to an initial -6.2%).
Sector studies
According to what was detected by ISTAT, the fourth quarter closes the year 2025 with 282,274 real estate sales. Intermediate volumes decreased by 0.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. On a quarterly basis, the seasonally adjusted index decreases (-1.5%), after the increase in the third quarter (+2.0%).
In the same quarter, notarial agreements for mortgages, financing and other obligations with the creation of a real estate mortgage (104,669) increased by 6.1% compared to the same period in 2024. The seasonally adjusted index shows a recovery (+1.4%) after the stability observed in the third quarter.
In the entire year 2025, the real estate market with 986,940 notarial purchase and sale agreements records a growth trend compared to the previous year (+3.9% overall; +4.0% the housing sector and +1.5% the economic sector). Mortgages, with 382,389 agreements, increased by 15.5%.
In 2025, sales of retail properties recorded an increase of 7.0% according to the Revenue Agency, reaching 46,036 transactions. These are purchases almost always made for investment purposes. The findings of the Research Office of the Tecnocasa Group, based on the specialized Tecnocasa and Tecnorete Immobili per l’Impresa networks, indicate that in the second half of 2025 the share of investment-oriented buyers was equal to 25%. Most of the shops being sold have surfaces of less than 100 m2; on average, investors aim for annual gross returns of 9-10%, accepting lower values in prime positions, where the vacancy risk is lower. In non-passage streets, when possible, the purchase is often also aimed at a subsequent change of use to residential.
