The talks between US and Chinese exponents on duties they were profitable: an a was reachedCCDORD COMMERCIAL which includes a 90 -day respite. After the one with Great Britain, it is the second, but much more important sign of de-Escalation of the commercial war. Thus closes a positive week for the financial markets that look at the future scenario following the commercial truce. The indications arrived from macroeconomic front They highlighted a growing US growth than estimates: a figure that probably represents a relief for the Federal Reserve. Also the decrease in production prices, He lays in favor of a more laxist Fed on interest rates, despite Powell expels with each intervention. The governor of the American Central Bank has emphasized the need to remodel the current approach that has the objectives full occupation and containment of inflation, also considering the shocks on the side of the offer and the relative increases in the prices that are revealing key factors for the scenario in recent years.
Use inflation under expected
In April, i consumer prices rose by 2.3%less than the expectations that bet on an increase of 2.4%, marking the lower increase since February 2021. On a monthly basis, the rise was 0.2%, also in this case lower than the market forecasts. The core index, the one net of energy and food, marked an increase of 2.8% on an annual basis and on a monthly basis of 0.2%. The final data of the CPI inflation, equal to 2.3% on an annual basis, probably represents a relief for the Federal Reserve, explains Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Global Co-Head and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Multi-Solutions of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. However, the most substantial price adjustments related to duties should occur in the coming months. For this, adds the analyst, “we continue to await us an attentive attitude by the Fed in the short term, with markets led by the news relating to the negotiations and political compromises”.
Among others macroeconomic data of the weekin the United Kingdom, the economy grows between positive signals and uncertainties. If the quarterly data highlights the keeping of services and industrial production, the monthly slowdown, however, suggests the persistence of winds, including inflationary pressures and the weakness of consumer demand, explains Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer of Moneyfarm. In perspective, the recent commercial agreement with the United States could prove to be a crucial event for the United Kingdom: better market access, lower rates and potential impulse to exports could support a more robust growth in the second part of the year. Even if the real economic impact will depend on the implementation rhythm and the adhesion of companies.
Does the weakness of the US dollar represent a long -term bearish turning point?
Since 2010, the US dollar has recorded a prolonged strength. However, in the first quarter of 2025 the dollar weakened compared to a currency basket. Considering that the potential customs duties after the election of President Trump had been widely reported, the trend of the US dollar in the first quarter is perhaps against intuitive, explains Jens Søndergaard, Costal Group’s currency analyst. THE’uncertainty about commercial policy is likely to curb the capital investments of companiesnot only in the United States but all over the world. Ultimately, uncertainty will probably lead to a slowing of economic growth globally. In this scenario, it is difficult to have a bullish vision on many non -US currencies, with the exception of refuge assets such as Japanese Yen and the Swiss franc. As a result, the US dollar could weaken further in the short term. However, in the long term, a prolonged drop would require slower growth and real yields lower in the United States than the rest of the world.
Petrolio is not very rough Which has lost moderately on the increase in oil stocks in the United States and, in view of an Iran-USA agreement that could put the production of the Islamic Republic back into play.
Meanwhile, OPEC has maintained its growth predictions of the application for oil, for this year and for the next. This is despite the economic and commercial uncertainties. On the offer side, the OPEC has revised slightly down the increase in non-OPEC production, for 2025, bringing it to 0.8 MB/D compared to 0.9 Mb/d of the previous estimate, with an estimated production at 54 MB/d.
Gold shines a little less: The Oro Quotation fell this week following the attention of the global commercial war. The prices of the precious metal have fallen by over 3%, touching the minimum for over a month, due to the improvement of the risk sentiment that is reducing gold attractiveness as a good refuge.
The weekly performance of bags
The best performance of the week is recorded by the Piazza di Milano which brings home a rise of over 4 percentage points. Madrid follow with +4.2% and Paris with +2.5%. Frankfurt earns about 1.7%, as well as London (+1.7%). The ending aims to be raised also for the Wall Street stock exchange, with the Nasdaq Best Performer index ashifts of 6.7%.
The best and worst in Piazza Affari
In Piazza Affari, Best Performer is the Lottomatica title with a double -digit dump of 13.2%, followed by STM +12.3%. Among other industrialists, Well Stellantis (+9.8%). Among the banks, Mediobanca rooms of 8.6%, Fineco of 6.8%, Unicredit and Mps, both uphill of about 6%. Among the worst titles, Reply leaves 5.8%on the ground. Down, also, Campari (-3.2%), Recorded (-1.9%) and Diasorin (-1.7%).
