Remain The US bond market under observation and the yields of the Treasury Bond, who have recorded a inexplicable surgeunusual for a period like this in which the equity markets are collapsing and a recession is theme. In such a scenario, traditionally, investors have always purchased T-Bond as a good refuge and therefore the returns should have dropped. What happened? And what is the situation now?
Marginal yields decreased but close to the maximum
This morning, in the face of the rebound of the European markets, in the wake of the comeback of Wall Street last night, i US Bond returnswho yesterday had touched some unusual peaksthen highlighted a reduction. The T-Bond decennial saw the performance flying over one maximum of 4.51%, To then retrace this today of 9.2 basis points to 4.304%. Parallel, the Bond at 2 years old corrected to 3.877% (-7.2 points) after touching a peak Very close to 4%.
TRUMP effect on the obligation
The Treasury returns would have gave it to Trump’s so beyond Trump tariff policywhich imposed unsustainable duties against about 100 countries, in particular China, affected with rates that reach 125%. This policy has fueled fears for a world trade blackout and for the sustainability of the US debt, causing one Escape from the American marketnot only the equity, but also that of the bonds. “The market has lost confidence in US activities,” said a Deutsche Bank analyst.
Then, the Strong question found in a T-Bond auction and the decision of President Trump to grant 90 days of “pause” to the duties announced, to carry out negotiations with the commercial partners of the United States, which has opened to the possibility of reducing everything at a universal rate of 10%, has reassured the markets and the US bond trace back. It is also believed that Trump has changed his mind about his tariff policy in the light of the pressure of the bond market, which the president himself called “very insidious”.
But there is also the position of the Hedge Funds
Another explanation of the exolted surge in the yields of the US bonds was found in an excessive imbalance of Hedge Fundsthat during the Panic Selling And the volatility that characterized the previous days would have found themselves “discovered” and would have been called by brokers to restore the margins corrected of their operation.
