The signs of a recovery of credibility and a return of appeal of our stock market They are evident and essentially respond to a series of concatenated factors: government stability, a clear and defined reform program, the resilient trend of the economy, especially the health of the labor market, and the consequent Improvement of rating sovereign confirmed by the main international agencies.
Spread at the minimum and FTSE MIB over 40,000
The Spread between BTP and Bund opened the week down to 102.5 basis pointsfrom the 104.8 points of the closing on Friday, compared to a performance of the Italian ten -year BTP at 3.6% percent and of the German bund of equal expiry to 2.6%. These are the lower levels since 2021but not the lowest of the year, since the differential between BTP and Bund has brought At the beginning of March until 98.85 points, minimum of all time.
Not only does the spread testify to the state of health of the tricolor market, but also the performance of the main index reference of the Milan stock exchange: the index FTSE MIB Today it has rebounded at 40,088 pointsupwards of 1.88% compared to Friday and 17.6% since the beginning of the year. A truly brilliant performance that draws inspiration from the greatest palatability of our market, in a world scene characterized by uncertainty.
The resilient trend of the economy
To motivate this performance he contributes first of all the Good performance of our economywhich certainly grows in moderate extent, but It is better than other great European economiesfor example Germany, which serves the car crisis and greater uncertainty about the government’s hold.
In the first quarter 2025the Italian economy records a growth of 0.3% in conjunctural terms and of 0.6% in tendential terms. A certainly positive fact that follows the signs, also positive, of the fourth quarter 2024, when the economic growth was 0.2% (revised up of 0.1% spread in March 2025) and the tendential by 0.5%. This estimate determines a growth acquired in 2025 by 0.4%. On the other hand the German GDPin the same period a 0.2% increase on quarterly basisin line the consensus estimates and against -0.2% previous quarter. The tendential data marks a -0.2%as expected by analysts.
Healthcare Marketapart from some monthly variability: in March 2025 there was a decrease in employees (-0.1%, equal to -16 thousand units), but compared with March 2024 the occupation rises by 1.9% (+450 thousand units). Compared to March 2024, both the number of people looking for work (-11.8%, equal to -208 thousand units) decreases and that of inactive (-0.9%, equal to -107 thousand).
The improvement of rating
All this, combined with government stability and the possibility of carrying out scheduled reforms, has allowed rating agencies to improve the credit of the credit of Italy. The S&P agency raised the rating of Italy from “BBB” to “BBB+”, with stable outlookmotivating the improvement with the expectation of a brightest growth than GDP in 2026, approximately 1%, and with the higher expenses related to the grounding of the PNRR and defense.
Fitch and DBRS Morningstarfor now, have confirmed a “BBB” rating, but the outlook is positiveindicating that there is still a possibility of improvement within the next 12 months, taking into consideration factors such as government stability and the prudent management of public finance levers.
In all three cases, High public debt still weighsinheritance of the past, that a controlled public finance and the application of European rules, which the government seems to want to pursue with conviction, could put on a path of reduction from here to 2028.
