Five years have passed sinceofficial UK release from the European Union, which took place on 31 January 2020, followed by a transition period which ended in January 2021. Despite initial promises, such as strengthened sovereignty, a significant reduction in immigration and an increase of £350 million (around 402.4 million euros) per week for the national health system (NHS), the overall budget of Brexit is decidedly negative, according to a survey by the British newspaper “Independent”.
Almost 35 billion euros in settlement paid to the EU
According to estimates by the British Ministry of Finance, the “financial settlement” with the European Union has so far cost 30.2 billion pounds (approximately 34.73 billion euros), with a residual of 6.4 billion (approximately 7.36 billion euros) to be paid. Furthermore, according to Bloomberg Economics, Brexit has resulted in an annual loss of 100 billion pounds (about 115 billion euros) of GDP. Currently, gross domestic product is 4% lower than it would have been without Brexit, with a 15% decline in long-term trade, as predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Economists have stressed that separation from the European Union has reduced investment, hindered the job market and complicated trade relations, with particularly negative impacts for small businesses. The agriculture and fisheries sectors have suffered serious losses: the seafood exports have fallen by 25% since 2019, while agricultural producers report the loss of European funds and difficulties in recruiting labour. Contrary to predictions, net immigration has reached record levels.
Between June 2021 and June 2024, 3.6 million admissions were recorded, with a net balance of 2.3 million. Although immigration from the EU has decreased, immigration from non-European countries has increased significantly. Furthermore, the number of European students enrolled in British universities has fallen dramatically due to new international tariffs introduced after Brexit.
Skyrocketing inflation after Brexit
According to a study by the London School of Economics (LSE), food and non-alcohol inflation would have been 8% lower without Brexit. Furthermore, the food sector has recorded a average loss of 2.8 billion pounds (approximately 3.2 billion euros) per year in exports to the European Union, aggravated by bureaucratic complications and new border controls. Prominent figures, such as former deputy prime minister Michael Heseltine, have called Brexit a “historic disaster”, accusing it of damaging the British economy, reducing opportunities for young people and depriving domestic industry of European resources and policies. Even the long-promised transfer of £350m per week to the NHS has not been met.
Some Brexit supporters argue that leaving the EU has allowed for greater regulatory flexibility, such as the elimination of “tampon tax” and new decisions on VAT. However, critics point out that the benefits are small compared to the overall costs. Sir Nick Harvey, director of the pro-EU study center European Movement UK, called for a strengthening of the partnership with Europe to mitigate the economic damage. What was supposed to be a rebirth, Brexit increasingly turns out to be a choice that entails high costs and benefits that are difficult to measure.
