In September, the attention of the markets will return to Frankfurt, where the 11th will meet the Board of Directors of the European Central Bank for the first time after the summer break.
This will be a highly anticipated moment, where you will try to clarify the cost of money, stopped from the July meeting. The cost could remain stable for a long time, perhaps until the end of 2025, as reported by Bloomberg
On the other hand, the top of the ECB had already confirmed that the orientation of monetary policy will be decided from time to time, on the basis of the punctual analysis of the most recent economic and financial data, thus anticipating the central issues of the debate that will animate the next few months.
According to forecasts, rates will move to December
According to Bloomberg, Frankfurt could take the latest move of this cycle only in December, closing a chapter started in mid -2024. The analysts, more prudent than in July, have moved their predictions forward and expect the rate on deposits to remain nailed to 1.75% for a large part of the year, until a possible recovery of the application will not force the route.
The postponement would give time to the members of the board to sift through the consequences of the commercial tensions related to the duties desired by the US president Donald Trump.
With December, the Eurotower will have the budget of the third quarter, without distortions due to the race to anticipate the US rates, and new projections on growth and inflation until 2028.
The script of prudence does not only concern the ECB: the Federal Reserve is motionless since the beginning of the year and the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, spoke of “genuine uncertainty” on the times of a cut.
For the ECB it is not yet time to accelerate
To run behind the cliché of the ECB stops like a petrified gem, reality thinks about it: on June 5, 2025 Frankfurt slipped the rate on deposits from 2.25 % to 2.00 %, its eighth tightened in less than twelve months. Christine Lagarde said it without too many turns: “We are in a good position”, and the path, he suggested, remains to be calibrated “Meeting by Meeting”.
After the July meeting, which left the rates unchanged, the markets cooled the bets on September, seeing just above 50% the possibility of a quarter point in December.
The risks related to global dynamics
Bloomberg reports that for the TD Securities analysis company, if the numbers began to tell a flexion linked to a global change of course in the exchanges, Frankfurt could bring out a new cut out of the drawer. It would be a move designed to protect the situation and keep an inflation now permanently under target, but only when the conditions will impose it.
If December passed without surprises, many operators would read the game as closed, a hypothesis already emerged in half of the responses collected in previous surveys.
