The Italian economy remains stagnant: in the third quarter of 2025 the GDP remained stable, without changes compared to the previous three months. Istat’s preliminary estimates confirm this. Despite the economic stalemate, the trend data (on an annual basis) still shows a +0.4%, albeit slowing down. The stability of this last quarter confirms the growth achieved for 2025 at 0.5%.
Stability hides opposite trends: only exports pushed, while consumption and domestic investments (domestic demand net of inventories) made a negative contribution, slowing down the recovery.
Economic stagnation is clear
The trend of Italian GDP in 2025 shows a progressive slowdown in growth, culminating in substantial stagnation in the third quarter. Analyzing the data from 2023 to today, we can notice a progressive decline in GDP growth, up to a stop from mid-2024. The list below analyzes the quarters in relation to the previous period and on an annual basis.
- I quarter 2023: +0.7% and +2.2%;
- II quarter 2023: -0.1% and +0.6%;
- III quarter 2023: +0.1% and +0.5%;
- IV quarter 2023: +0.2% and +1.0%;
- I quarter 2024: +0.1% and +0.3%;
- II quarter 2024: +0.2% and +0.6%;
- III quarter 2024: +0.1% and +0.6%;
- IV quarter 2024: +0.1% and +0.5%;
- I quarter 2025: +0.3% and +0.7%;
- II quarter 2025: -0.1% and +0.5%;
- III quarter 2025: 0.0% and +0.4%.
From 2023 to today, the picture shows a progressive slowdown in growth, with increasingly limited quarterly variations and a trend increase that went from +2.2% to +0.4% in two years. A trend that highlights the structural difficulty of the Italian production system in regaining momentum, in an uncertain international context in which the export push risks not being enough to compensate for the weakness of internal demand.
Unc: “The country is at a standstill, but the risk of technical recession has escaped
The country is also at a standstill for the National Consumers Union, which in a note states:
The small consolation is that we have escaped the danger of a technical recession, i.e. a negative GDP even in the third quarter after the economic decline in the second. Furthermore, thanks to the Government’s minimal and asphyxiated forecast, the 2025 GDP objective will certainly be achieved, considering the growth achieved of 0.5%. There is, however, no reason to be happy and satisfied.
The PBO also raises the alarm
However, the photograph taken by the Parliamentary Budget Office (Pub) in its October “Note on the economic situation” published a few days ago is more gloomy. The report outlines a country in stagnation, with GDP stuck in the third quarter and forecasts for 2025 stuck at +0.5%, but with “significant risks” of further worsening.
The international scenario is the first major obstacle for the PBO, which highlights a “deterioration of international relations”, marked by trade wars, the stronger euro and geopolitical tensions. For a manufacturing economy like the Italian one, the consequence is direct: exports are in marked decline (-1.9% in the second quarter), especially towards the USA.
After the temporary acceleration in winter, Italy’s GDP shrank in the second quarter for the first time in almost three years; the production dynamic is thus lower than that of Europe. The only positive signs come from investments, supported by credit conditions that are still favorable, in particular on capital goods.
