There Federal Reserve It remains more worried about inflation than for the impact of Trump’s duties e it could even delay the next cut Due to the effects of uncertainty and the rates imposed by the US leader on imports. A Fed official explained it, denying i inflation datawhich signaled a slowdown in price growth.
Collins thinks of a postponement postponed
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Susan Collinsremembering that the Central Bank should still lower interest rates by the end of the year, indicated that inflation caused by duties It could delay further cuts.
“The renewed prices on prices could delay a further normalization of policies, since the belief is necessary that the duties are not destabilizing inflation expectations”
said Collins, adding that keeping the stable rates is the best approach “For the moment”.
“I consider monetary policy well positioned to face a wide range of potential economic risks in this context of high uncertainty”
Collins reiterated.
Collins with his staff estimated that a actual duty on imports higher than 10% would increase inflation underlying to an extent included Between 0.7 and 1.2 percentage points And that most of this effect would occur this year. Collins has also planned a slowdown in the US economy this year, but its predictions are for one slower growth, “not for a significant recession”. For this reason, but he voted to keep rates unchanged and is aligned with the prudent setting of the president of the Fed, who believes he does not have to hurry to adjust interest rates.
Inflation under the expectations at the minimums from 2021
THE preliminary data of inflation in March they went out just yesterday and indicated that one Braking at 2.4% Tendential from 2.8% of February, resulting lower than expected of the market that indicated it to 2.5%. The core index which excludes the prices of energy and food products, has shown one growth of 2.8%reaching under the consensus and sliding for the first time below 3% from March 2021.
Despite this braking, which refers to a period prior to the imposition of duties universal by the Trump Administration, experts believe that The impact on prices will feel further And that the slowdown of inflation will not last long and will join a weaker economic growth, if not a recession.
“We remain cautious about current inflation dataas these figures reflect a period prior to the implementation of recent duties. Therefore, we expect that in the coming months there can be a greater volatility of the data on inflation, in particular as regards the goods (influenced by duties) “
underlines an analyst of Janus Handerson.
“Today’s data on the consumer price index, weaker than expected, appears overcome in light of the profound changes in commercial policies of the last few days. Looking to the future, the Fed will probably face a difficult compromise we expect the initial reaction of the Fed is prudentbut the risks remain that a slowdown in the most marked economy than expected can lead to the resumption of the monetary ease cycle by the Fed “
states Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
