The price of gold reaches new goals and above all breaks through the roof of $ 4,000 the ounce, which represents a very significant psychological level for the precious market, which in just two years has almost doubled its value. The future on the “gold for delivery December thus reached 4,046 dollars the ounce (+1%), on a peak of 4,056 USD/ounce, also responding to the progressive depreciation of the US dollar.
Geopolitical and economic tensions
At the base of the Rally of Refuge, there are the usual geopolitical themes – the war in Ukraine and in conflict in Gaza – to which are added more strictly economic issues, such as the policy of Trump’s duties, responsible for at least 50% of the gold rally, and threats to the independence of the Fed.
The shutdown effect on the Fed
To aggravate the situation (and feed the gold rally) the Shutdown came, or the tightness of the US public offices, taken last week due to the failure to approve the budget. The administrative detention, which is prolonging with major economic impacts on the US administration, is delaying a series of macro data, such as those on the labor market, which are crucial for decisions on Rederal Reserve rates. This means that the Fed will find itself deciding in the dark, when it will meet at the end of the month, even if another cut of the rates of 25 base points is widely expected.
ETF purchases and central banks
To support the rise of gold, which has earned over 50% since the beginning of the year, the insistent purchases of ETF on gold are contributing, which have reached the highest level since September 2022, but are still below the 2020 peak, offering space for further lifts of the metal.
To support the ascent also record purchases by the central banks, in particular the Chinese central bank, which in September continued to buy gold for eleven consecutive months, bringing its reserves to record levels.
Analysts see new records on the horizon
For Ing’s experts, the purchases of the central banks, the Trump commercial war, the geopolitical risks, the increase in ETF purchases and further cutting of rates by the Fed “suggest that gold has further space to grow”.
It is of the same opinion Goldman Sachs, who revised up the price of gold price, indicating a target in December 2026 of 4,900 dollars the ounce compared to the 4,300 dollars indicated previously. A review conditioned by the current price, higher than previously expected, while in the percentage level, the forecast of increase of the price of 23% by the end of 2026. Analysts of the Bank of Affairs still estimate purchases by the central banks at the rhythms of 70/80 tons in 2025/2026, which will contribute for a percentage of 19% to the expected rise by the end of 2026.
