The Third quarter will prove to be crucial for global marketsa period that promises to be less chaotic than the previous one, but still full of uncertainties. The policies of Trump 2.0 They continue to redesign the commercial panorama, with duties that, although attenuated, will weigh on global growth, even on the United States that could experience one recession. All this will have market implications, still weakening the dollar and the assets linked to it, revitalizing the so -called refuge assetsprimarily gold, and rebalancing the weight of the various market markets. The password will still be diversified. This is what emerges from the last Quarterly Outlook of BG Saxo.
Less chaos, but it remains uncertainty
The next quarter will begin to show how the chaos of the policies of the 2nd quarter and Trump 2.0 and the response of the world to them are shaping the Economy prospects and the sentiment of the global market. “In mid -May, the United States and China agreed to differ from tariff levels similar to embargo, thus laying the foundations for the third quarter, which is hoped ports more answers and less questions Compared to those we saw in the first half of the year, although we must admit that nothing is guaranteed in the era of Trump 2.0 “.
There China keeps his own leverage on rare earthsessential for the military and technological industry, while the USA exert their influence on key sectors such as the aeronautics. At the same time, risks of Recession in the United Statesaccentuated by a real estate market in deterioration and the impact of the duties.
Dollar confirms weakness, well the “Safe Heaven”
In this context, the US dollar It is expected in weakeningwhile precious metals, in particular gold, are confirmed as a refuge asset, with projections of further growth.
The policy of TRUMP 2.0 is anti-Globalista policy that the economist Russell Napier calls “national capitalism” and that others could define as “reverse mercantilism”, with the United States trying to dismantle the global order they have built from the Second World War. A strong dollar was at the center of the order when the mercantilist powers have suppressed their currencies to build economies guided by exports. Now, despite the transactional style of Trump and the erection of commercial barriers, the US dollar will remain the most important currency, but it will be less important than before.
The Commodity sectorS has had a strong first half, with the Bloomberg Commodities Index on the rise of approximately 9%, thus comfortable conveniently other assets called in US dollars, including bonds and shares. Although the commodities generally record a rally During periods of robust economic growth, the current recovery is largely guided by geopolitical risks and by the demand for investments in tangible assets, in particular for the precious metalsthat this will continue positive trend.
Share: the Baba Trade rule
The equity perspectives suggest a Potential sub-performance of US actions in favor of global ones, pushing towards a strategic diversification “out of America”. In this regard, BG Saxo coins the concept of Baba Trade: Buy Anything But America.
For US actions they are possible Multiple routesbut in general, the reduction of US exceptionalism And a rebalancing compared to the historical overweight towards US actions (with a peak of over 70% of the MSCI world index at the beginning of this year), they will probably mean an underproform compared to global competitors perhaps for the years to come.
Europe, Japan and emerging markets offer interesting investment opportunitiessupported by tax stimuli, more favorable governance and evaluations reforms. Historically known for the weak corporate governance and the limited remuneration for shareholders, Japan is silently suffering a significant Revolution of Corporate Governance: Companies are increasingly focused on profitability, the increase in dividends and the improvement of returns for shareholders. Europe is undergoing it tax stimulus More expansive than the last decades, led by the ambitious German initiative for infrastructure and modernization from EUR 500 billion. This multi -year structural investment is not yet completely taken for granted by the markets, which offers an interesting window of opportunities.
Different emerging markets offer a remarkable growth potential to interesting evaluationsabout 13 times the useful profits. Countries such as India, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico have solid internal economies, an improvement in the momentum of increasingly stable profits and currencies.
