In recent months, economists from all over the world have carefully monitored the signals from the United States, worried by a possible recession that could have triggered chain effects on the rest of the world, including Italy. However, the latest news overturned, at least in part, the forecast more negative.
The main international brokers have revised down the chances of a recession in the United States and did so in the wake of an event that, albeit temporary, has relaunched the optimism on the markets: the commercial respite Between the United States and China.
The respite between Washington and Beijing removes the recession
After the United States and China agreed a mutual reduction of duties for 90 days, the announcement, which arrived on May 13, 2025, had an immediate effect on the perception of risk global. In practical terms, the United States will reduce the rates on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce duties on American products from 125% to 10%.
It is not only a significant diplomatic turning point, because the loosening of these tensions led analysts to avoid, or at least lower, the chances of a immediate recession risk for the USA.
In detail:
- Goldman Sachs has reduced the chances of recession for the American economy from 45% to 35%;
- JP Morgan has positioned this probability under 50%;
- Barclays has even completely excluded the risk of recession for the next quarters.
There are forecasts, of course, but also clear signals that the markets cannot ignore: Wall Street has reacted with enthusiasm, with Nasdaq, the stock index of the US values stock exchange, which represents all the companies listed on that market, and the S&P 500, the most important US share index, in clear rise.
Opportunities for Italy: exports, trust and investments
Italy has everything to earn from a more relaxed international economic climate. Our country exports a significant share of its GDP and boasts a strong presence in industrial sectors such as:
- precision mechanics;
- Automotive;
- fashion;
- the agri -food;
- The instrumental assets.
Everyone is strongly affected by global dynamics. A resumption of international exchanges, favored by the truce between the two superpowers, could translate into a Increase in demand For Italian products, both by the United States and by China and other commercial partners who benefit from stability in the markets.
Furthermore, an atmosphere of growing trust could translate into one greater propensity for investments by Italian companies, which in recent years have often adopted a prudent attitude due to international uncertainties.
Even foreign investors could return to look at Italy with interest, especially if the government will be able to seize this window of opportunities to strengthen the competitiveness of the country system.
Market markets, but the situation is precarious
Despite the euphoria of the markets, it is necessary to maintain a certain degree of caution, however, remembering that the commercial truce has one Limited duration of 90 days And nothing guarantees that it will translate into a definitive agreement.
Also remain others risk factors on the international scenario:
- the slowdown of growth in Germany and France;
- geopolitical tensions in the Middle East;
- The evolution of monetary policies of the main central banks.
In order for Italy to really benefit from this new global context, it is essential that economic policy both up to the challenge. This means adopting concrete measures to strengthen productivity, encourage innovation, improve logistical and energy infrastructures, and guarantee a stable and favorable regulatory context for investments.
A active economic diplomacy is also needed, capable of promoting Made in Italy in the most dynamic markets and to intercept the new commercial flows.
