In the first quarter of 2025, Italian exports towards the United States recorded one total growth of 6%with the agri -food that marked +11%, an even more significant leap. A dubiously positive datanot only because it indicates a general recovery of the sector, but also because it demonstrates the resilience of Made in Italy food in a context of strong commercial tensions.
However, a concrete threat is loomed on the horizon: the return of customs duties wanted by Donald Trump. A move that, if implemented, risks questioning one of the main outlet channels for Italian agri -food, just when it is touching new records.
Italian export growth in USA USA, but at risk
Second Coldiretti And Chain Italywho analyzed the data Istat of the first quarter 2025, Italian agri -food exports to the world are grown by 6%double the average of all sectors. In the United States, however, the increase was almost double compared to the global one, recording a +11% that drives the entire sector.
This success is due to a winning combination of factors, including the high Quality of Italian productsthe strong appeal of Made in Italy abroad and the growing international recognition of the Mediterranean diet as a healthy power supply model.
But behind these record numbers, to date, one is hidden structural fragility which is based above all on Geopolitical and commercial balances Extremely volatile, which can quickly change with a signature at the bottom of a presidential measure.
The spectrum of Trump’s duties, a real danger for exports
Donald Trump’s return to the American political scene is not a neutral event for the Italian economy. Already during his first term, the president had shown a clear preference for protectionist policiesimposing duties on a long list of European products, including many Italians.
In 2020, for example, wine, cheeses, salami and olive oil had risked additional rates they would have compromise access to the market Use for many Italian small and medium -sized enterprises.
Today the threat reappears. Despite the truce with China, Trump has repeatedly announced his intention to confirm duties up to 20% On a wide range of imported products, supporting the need to protect the American industry and rebalance the commercial balance.
The duties, by definition, increase costs to import and, if they really enter into force, the risk is to see slowly slowing down – or even reverse – the growth of Italian agri -food exports in the USA.
The consequences for Made in Italy: how much it risks losing Italy
In 2024, Italian agri -food exports towards the United States touched the 6 billion eurosout of a total of 69.1 billion globally. Considering that in the first quarter 2025 it grew by 11% (a projection that would bring the annual data to about 6.6 billion), the introduction of 20% duties could heavily hit this flow.
A 20% dice would make Italian products more expensive and less competitive, with a possible one reduction of exports 20% or 30%, according to dynamics observed in previous cases. This would mean a potential loss between 1.3 and 2 billion euros in the agri -food sector only.
For the Made in Italy food, the US market represents one of the main outlets non -EU citizens. The USA are the second destination market for Italian agri -food, after Germany, and the first outside the European Union. Cheeses, pasta, olive oil, preserves, wine and salami are among the products most appreciated by American consumers, which associate Italy with quality, authenticity and health.
A 20% duty would risk doing increase consumer prices of these products, making them less competitive than local competitors or other countries not subject to rates. According to Coldiretti, they are Over 30,000 Italian companies involved directly or indirectly in agri -food exports to the USA.
These are mostly agricultural and artisan SMEs, agri -food cooperatives, transformation and logistics companies. Many of these do not have market alternatives Immediate: a closure or even just a slowdown in exports to the United States would mean loss of turnover, reduction of production, cutting of jobs.
Coldiretti and Italian supply chain stress that the signals from negotiations with other countries, such as China and the United Kingdom, seem to go to the Direction of a de-Escalation. This lets hope for one possible Opening also towards Europe. However, to date, the negotiations between the United States and the European Union have not yet led to a new stable commercial agreement.
