The agreement reached in the Senate for the end of the shutdown does not yet resolve the impasse, as the compromise found with the Democrats will now also have to be approved by the House and it will still take some time. It could take another week for the regulatory process to be completed, leaving financial markets in a state of cautious anticipation for the final outcome. This is demonstrated by the performance of Gold, which recovered 4,000 dollars an ounce, despite the leap forward in US futures during the night, when the news of the agreement to end the shutdown spread.
Gold is racing again
Gold is rising sharply on international markets this morning, recovering the 4 thousand dollar threshold. In fact, the precious metal reached 4,084.47 dollars per ounce, up 1.86%, around the intraday highs. The precious metal thus continues the brilliant performance achieved this year and is set to close 2025 with an increase of around 50%.
Dollar in plaster
The trend of the dollar also highlights a lot of caution, confirming that the American currency did not appreciate on the expectation of a resolution to the impasse that blocked the US economy in September. The dollar index is almost frozen at 99.410 (-0.06%), reflecting the cautious trend of the main exchange rates with the euro at 1.1571 USD (+0.05%) and with the Swiss franc at 0.8053 (+0.02%); the dollar/yen cross was slightly better at 153.98 (+0.36%).
Futures market celebrates
However, the rise in gold has not slowed down the enthusiasm of the stock market, as evidenced by the overnight performance of futures on US indices. Overnight, after the news of the agreement, futures on the S&P 500 rose by 0.7% to 6,800.25 points and futures on the Nasdaq 100 by 1.2% to 25,471.0 points, while futures on the Dow Jones recorded a more modest increase of 0.2% to 47,160.0 points. That’s after Wall Street posted steep losses last week as sell-offs hit technology stocks amid growing concerns about a potential AI-fueled bubble.
US stocks still in a bearish trend
- “The stock markets closed last week with a mainly bearish dynamic, i.e. with negative closings and breaks of the lows”
explains David Pascucci, Market Analyst at XTB, adding
“a very interesting dynamic that gives space to nefarious interpretations on the markets as we find ourselves with fundamentals that could suggest the beginning of a bursting of a bubble, especially in the US technology sector. The technical situation closed last week suggests this hypothesis but the real technical test will be this week as we could witness what is defined as an interim week where a closing of prices within last week’s range could confirm sales at the highs. This week could be fundamental in establishing which price levels will have to be violated in correspondence with the shutdown to see directional movements.”
Countdown: When will macro data come out?
For the official end of the shutdown – underlines the XTB analyst – we are talking about November 17th, the date on which the Chamber could meet to vote on the agreement reached in the Senate, after a break scheduled until November 16th. During the shutdown, around forty macroeconomic data relating to the month of September were lost and will now have to be recovered before the release of the October numbers. The data will therefore all come out together, but not in bulk. It is expected that the September data will be released a few days after November 17, while the October data will be released a few weeks later and may not even be very reliable, since the blockade of government activities also affected the surveys carried out in October.
