Positive week for most European marketsdespite one last cautious session. On the sentiment of the investors, however, weighed theuncertainty generated by the theme of duties and from the lack of visibility on times and ways of a possible entry into force of the new US tariffs. While the timing of the EU measures still remains uncertain, Trump surprised the markets on Thursday by reporting that the duties of 25% on Canada and Mexico will be issued next Tuesday. Just two days earlier he had said that the increases would be delayed by another month until April 2nd. Trump also raised the stakes against China, announcing another increase in the duties of 10 percentage points, in line with the first increase that took place in early February. Disappointing week for the US share markets (The Nasdaq did worse than everyone): the signs of a weaker economic growth in the United States touched a nerve discovered in the markets and the constant political uncertainty is not providing any help.
The last session
Among the markets of Old ContinentFriday without Frankfurt, moderately positive day for London (which goes up to a fractional +0.61%) and Stabile Paris (reporting a moderate +0.11%).
No significant variation in closing for the Milanese listwith the FTSE MIB which stands on the values of the eve of 38,655 points; On the same line, the FTSE Italia All-Share (Piazza Affari) remains at the starting line, which stops at 40,919 points, near the previous levels. The FTSE Italia Mid Cap (-0.44%) is slightly negative; As well as slightly reduced the Ftse Italia Star (-0.54%).
Among the Best performers of Milanin evidence Nexi (+9.00%), Hera (+1.68%), Ferrari (+1.15%) and Enel (+1.03%). The strongest sales, however, hit Saipem, who finished the negotiations at -2.09%. Bad also stmicroelectronics, which suffers a drop of 1.80%. Sales on Eni, which records a reduction of 1.56%. Disappointing Leonardo, who plays just under the levels of the eve.
The ECB decision
One of the most important appointments of next week is the meeting of the European Central Bankwhich will be held on Thursday 6 March. The ECB It will almost certainly cut the interest rates of another 25 basis pointslowering the deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50%. As the interest rates approach a probable neutral area, the ECB will probably report that a further loosening could be appropriate, but will deactivate the automatic pilot and leave all the options open when it will be the timing of the next cut.
From minutes of the last meeting published this week it emerged that at the end of January the central bankers believed premature for the Board of Directors to discuss a possible landing area for key interest rates. At the same time, the opinion was expressed that the natural or neutral rate is probably higher than before the pandemic, since the balance between supply and global demand of savings has changed in recent years. The central bankers observed that the public debate on the natural or neutral rate between market analysts and observers was becoming more intense, with the markets trying to evaluate the evaluation of the Board of Directors as proxy of the terminal rate in the current rates cycle. However, this debate has been “seen as misleading”, because the natural rate is a stealing concept of state, difficult to apply in a rapid change environment, such as the current one, with new continuous shocks.
Appointments for China and Europe
Looking at the other appointments on the calendar, a focus will be on China with the “two sessions” daysthat is the simultaneous annual meetings of the National Committee of the Political Consultative Conference of the Chinese people, which begins on March 4, and of the National Congress of the People, which opens on March 5th. The event is carefully monitored by the markets as it is when China announces the country’s growth objective for the year, the main tax and economic policies and the political direction in some strategic areas.
Looking at Old Continenta group of European leaders should meet in London on Sunday to discuss to join the United Kingdom to implement a common plan to increase the expense for defense and safety. On March 6, EU leaders will hold a special summitduring which the European Commission should reveal the details of a defense package.
