Ferrari is back on the march (+1.1% today on the stock market), after nailing down on Thursday, when the stock left around 14% of its value on the ground, the biggest daily drop since 2016, following the presentation of the new strategic plan and after having revised the growth and electrification targets between now and 2030. The stock in fact maintains a drop on a weekly basis of 16.76%, making it the worst of the FTSE MIB.
Guidance 2025 revised upwards and shareholder compensation
On the occasion of the Capital Market Day, the house of the Prancing Horse raised its 2025 guidance, reaching the objectives set for 2026 a year early, and proposed an increase in shareholder remuneration through an increase in the dividend payout and a new buyback.
The Maranello company estimates net revenues equal to or greater than 7.1 billion euros for 2025, against the 7 billion previously estimated, while the adjusted EBITDA is indicated equal to or greater than 2.72 billion euros compared to the 2.68 billion previously, with a margin of 38.3%. Adjusted EBIT is expected to be equal to or greater than 2.06 billion (2.03 billion previously) with a margin of 29%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) are estimated at or above 8.80 euros (8.60 euros previously) and industrial free cash flow at 1.3 billion (from 1.2 billion).
The company has decided to propose an increase in remuneration to shareholders, with a dividend pay-out of 40% of adjusted net profit starting from the results of the 2025 financial year, which leads to a cumulative dividend of approximately 3.5 billion euros from 2027 to 2031, and a new share buyback program of approximately 3.5 billion, to be carried out from 2026 until the end of the plan, in line with the trend of industrial free cash flow generation.
Target revision to 2030 disappoints
However, the company with the prancing horse has revealed rather modest targets for 2030: turnover is expected to be around 9 billion euros (compound annual growth rate of around 5%) and adjusted EBITDA at at least 3.6 billion euros, a margin of at least 40%, with a compound annual growth rate of 6%, well below the implicit 10% that emerged from the Capital Markets Day on 2022. EBIT will reach at least 2.75 billion euros in 2030, margin of at least 30%. This strong profitability translates into a significant generation of industrial free cash flow (around 8 billion in the period 2026-2030).
The electrification targets for 2030 are also disappointing. The strategic plan for 2030, confirming that it will maintain the same pace of introduction of new models, with an average of four launches per year between 2026 and 2030, indicates that the range of sports cars will be made up of approximately 40% of models with internal combustion engine (ICE), approximately 40% of hybrid models and 20% of models electrical. The previous target for BEV vehicles by 2030 was 40%.
The electric Ferrari, the details of which have been revealed, will only be “an addition to the range of models”, while the Maranello company will continue to offer and innovate combustion engines – V6, V8 and V12 – in compliance with the new global regulations, focusing on increasing specific power and developing them so that they are suitable for the use of alternative fuels.
