Blocking the flow of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine is more symbolic than anything else. It certainly represents a historical turning point, configuring the invaded country as also an economic and strategic hinge between the West and Russia. In reality, however, methane supplies via Ukraine to our latitudes were already relatively limited.
If the EU has decided to take this path, on the primary American impulse, it is because the war is slipping ever faster towards the announced negotiations. But what are the routes and gas pipelines that bring energy to European states?
Is Russian gas still arriving in Europe?
The countries of the Old Continent had drastically reduced their gas imports from Moscow since the beginning of the invasion, therefore well before the official stop on 1 January 2025. We went from a dependence of over 40% of the country’s gas needs Approximately 2021 8% by 2024. With the stop to transit from Ukraine, which joins the Nord Stream already closed (and sabotaged)the only supply route to Europe from the Federation remains only the TurkStreamthe gas pipeline that passes from Russian fields to Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In short, Ankara confirms itself as increasingly central to the Eurasian balance, in a moment of great fervor for the imminent settlement of Donald Trump at the White House.
The Europeans decided to minimize their dependence on Moscow gas by obeying the American order to cut off revenue that could be used for the war. At the same time, Moscow also reduced its exports, in retaliation for the sanctions imposed by Brussels: in August 2022 Gazprom interrupted the flow of natural gas via the Nord Stream, the main link from Russia to Germany and then to Europe, denouncing the lack of resources for maintenance. Immediately afterwards, the stop to the entry into operation of the Nord Stream 2the doubling of the pipeline which should have ensured a supply to the Old Continent via the Baltic.
How much impact does the Ukrainian stop on Russian gas (really) have?
In all of this, Russian gas continued to flow into EU storage. The cancellation of the transit agreement between Moscow and Kiev, which has continued for three years despite the conflict, will produce a decidedly limited impact for European countries. According to the Bruegel think tank, the actual reduction will be 5% of total European gas imports, whose transit line is mainly of interest Austria, Hungary and Slovakia. That is, the three European states that most wink at the regime Vladimir Putin.
At present, ultimately, Europe receives gas from Russia via a single route: the TurkStream, which crosses the Türkiye and continues towards Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary. Flow data to 2023 shows that supplies via TurkStream to south-eastern Europe are increased sharply in July 2024reaching a record monthly high of 1.29 billion cubic meters. The previous monthly record level was 1.28 billion in December 2021.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Norway and the United States have become the main suppliers of gas to the EU, which have been joined by some North African countriesThe United Kingdom and the Qatar. So much so that in 2023 Russian gas only represented 15% of the total import of Europe (equal to 43 billion cubic metersof which 18 billion cubic meters of LNG) compared to a share that exceeded 50% (around 150 billion cubic meters) before the conflict. To date, imports from Russia have fallen further to 8%, according to data released by the European Council. In detail, the economic impact of the Ukrainian stop to Russian gas will be reflected in two fundamental parameters, considering that transit tariffs have increased by 40% in these three years of hostility:
- the availability of LNG (liquefied natural gas);
- the cost of transporting LNG to the affected countries.
Routes and methane pipelines, where does gas come to Europe from now?
On the eve of 2025, the EU Commission said it was ready to interrupt the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine, having worked “for more than a year” to consolidate four alternative routes. Such paths wind through Germany, Italy, Poland, Greece and Türkiye. However, considerations about the blue gold arriving in our latitudes are not over. On paper, the pipeline is operational but in reality closed Yamal that through Belarus And Poland arrives in Germany. While the White Stream fromAzerbaijan at the Romania across the Black Sea remains pending, the Tanap winds its way from the Caspian country and becomes Tap upon his arrival in Italy, in Puglia. It is also currently inactiveEastMedthe pipeline that from the waters of Cyprus passes through Greece and also arrives in the country.
They also transport gas from the south TransMed And GreenStream: both cross Sicily, but the first fishes in Algeria while the second in Libya. Finally, there are the methane pipelines that come down from the north, from Norway and the Baltic fields, up to Swiss. In 2023 the United States they were the main supplier of LNG to the EU, covering almost 50% of total imports. Compared to 2021, imports from the United States have almost tripled. The major European importers are in order:
- France
- Spain
- Netherlands
- Belgium
- Italy
