Reigns a framework of general uncertainty about financial marketsstrongly conditioned by the trend of negotiations on duties and with a growing geopolitical risk in Middle East.
The lack of a clear agreement between the United States and China, the stall negotiation with the European Union and the uncertainties in relations with Japan, leave the waiting marketsnegatively influencing the equity lists and leading to a light Flexion of interest ratesin particular in Europe.
The risk of escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, with possible impacts on oil infrastructures, adds an additional level of concern, accentuating volatility and pushing investors to a more prudent attitude.
This is the scenario described by Filippo Casagrande, Chief of Investments of Generali Investments.
The macroeconomic scenario
From a macroeconomic point of view, Europe Show encouraging signals: the GDP growth was revised up (+0.6% in the first quarter), in particular pushed by Germany, while in United States there contraction already highlighted in the previous months it is confirmed. The estimates for 2025 see a slight improvement for the Eurozone (+0.9%), with stability in 2026. In the USA, the forecasts for the current year remain firm (+1.4%), but a possible improvement is glimpsed in 2026.
On the front inflationthe eurozone records an important slowdown inflation in services, dropped to 3.2%, while in the USA The descent is more gradual. The recent increase in the price of oil and the potential effects of the duties, however, are factors that could bring up rally pressure.
The moves of central banks
Central banks they move caution. There ECB has recently carried out a further cutting of the rates, however indicating the approach of the end of the expansive cyclegiven the stabilization of inflation and the recovery of growth. There Fedon the contrary, maintains a Attentionist attitude: US monetary policy remains frozen in the uncertainty linked to duties, tax policies and energy price. The market discounts at the moment Less than two cuts by the end of 2025but the Fed Committee is divided and the dollar continues to suffer from the poor predictability of American economic policy and for the growing concerns related to public debt.
The prospects of Generali Investments
In terms of allocation, Generali Investments maintains a Cautious and selective positioning. On rates, the area of 2.4% -2.5% on bund Germans is seen as balance pointwith any rise that could represent opportunities for the increase in duration. On Italian BTPsthe judgment remains constructiveeven if the spread with the Bund appears compressed.
On the obligation front, they are preferred High quality titles and medium-low durationwith attention to the market European High Yield.
Equity (equity), finally, remains in neutral location due to geopolitical and commercial uncertainties, but with a overweight targeted Auriferous, European and financial defensive titleswhile the Energy sector is considered a useful coverage against a possible surge in the price of oil.
