The political-financial dispute between Rome and Berlin on the UniCredit-Commerzbank dossier records a significant turning point with the intervention of the outgoing vice-president of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, who in an interview with Financial Times openly censored the German government’s position on the public exchange offer launched by the Piazza Gae Aulenti institute.
De Guindos’ words to the FT
“The main problem with this type of national message is that it undermines the credibility of the Savings and Investment Union. It is very difficult for governments to claim that they are in favor of the Savings and Investment Union if they then say: ‘No, we are against this specific operation'”, declared the Spanish central banker in one of his last statements before the end of his mandate, scheduled for June. According to De Guindos, government intervention in business decisions is common and represents a broader trend in the EU, but this attitude is against the spirit of the single market.
The context remains incandescent
UniCredit has built an overall stake of 35.55% in the capital of the second German listed bank, between shares held directly and positions in derivatives, launching an “unsolicited” public exchange offer offering 0.485 new UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share and a rather limited premium, valuing the institution at over 35 billion euros. The management of Commerzbank again strongly opposed the operation, reiterating that it underestimates the value of the bank, as did Chancellor Friedrich Merz who accused the Italian bank of “hostile” and “aggressive” tactics.
The position of the Eurotower takes on significant institutional weight
When asked about whether to proceed with the agreement, De Guindos replied that the ECB’s recommendation is “to consider the euro area as a single jurisdiction with free movement of capital and shares and a common deposit guarantee scheme”.
On an industrial level, the banker defined the German banking sector as “very fragmented” and in need of modernization to face “major” economic challenges, while larger institutions could obtain economies of scale, higher valuations and less expensive financing, creating “a truly large European bank” capable of competing with those of the United States. Frankfurt’s position was also strengthened by the intervention of executive committee member Piero Cipollone, according to whom cross-border acquisitions “should be simpler”, because they make everyone stronger. Strengthened by this position, UniCredit number one Andrea Orcel is expected today at a meeting with the head of EU competition Teresa Ribera and the commissioner for financial services Maria Luis Albuquerque.
Market reaction
The ECB’s position is welcomed by operators. UniCredit shares are trading up by 0.78% in the 71.05 euro area, while Commerzbank advances by 1.10% to 35.99 euros on the Frankfurt stock exchange. On the stock exchanges, the FTSE MIB rises by 0.38% above 49,470 points, while the DAX drops by 0.20% in the wake of macroeconomic uncertainties on the locomotive of Europe. The message from the Eurotower, in fact, shifts the axis of the debate from the defense of national interests to the coherence of the architecture of the single market, in a phase in which the European Commission has also revised its approach to mergers to encourage the creation of continental champions.
