A countdown triggered from 1 August, the threat of generalized bodies of 30% signed Trump, a compromise dancing on the edge of the 15% It is a European diplomacy that moves on several fronts to avoid yet another commercial war.
The negotiations between the United States and the European Union now enter the most delicate phase, with Brussels who tries to tighten the times After months of direct missions and contacts between Commissioner Sefcovic and the Secretary of Commerce Lutnick.
The EU tries to save the salvable and prepare the ground both for the agreement and for the clash. On the table there are rates, exemptions, countermeasures, but also the internal political estate of 27divided on how much and how to respond to Trump. In concert, concerns for Italy grow, which would have a not easy life with the duties at 15%, considering the losses and the fact that the dollar-euro change is in favor of the first.
Duties, the talks with the US continue: where are we
In Brussels, during a meeting of the Coreperthe European Commissioner for Commerce Maros Sefcovic updated the ambassadors on the state of interlocution. We have been working for weeks to avoid punitive rates of 30% threatened by Donald Trump and scheduled for August 1st.
Obviously the union is preparing for each scenario, including the non -agreement. In addition to tightening closest relationships with partners such as Japan and China, among the study options there is the strongest one of applying a series of retaliating measures aimed at affecting American exports in Europe.
The list of counter It could affect about a third of US exports to Europe (335 billion euros per year), including top assets such as whiskey of Kentucky and aircraft Boeing products. In the event of a failure of the negotiation, the countermeasures would be activated after 8 August and would involve an estimated goods value in 93 billion.
The Commission defined the negotiation an absolute priority and insisted on the importance of the unit between 27, discouraging any exclusive bilateral negotiation With Washington.
The anti-coercion option gains acclaim in the EU: what is the bazooka
Among the European ranks, consent is growing for the use of Anti-Coetwork tool. Never employed so far, it would give the commission with large margins of maneuver to react to economic pressures from third parties.
In addition to the imposition of duties, the tool provides for measures such as:
- the exclusion of American companies from public tenders;
- the revocation of intellectual property protections;
- Limits to foreign direct investments.
Germany, initially skeptical, now seems among the main supporters of the so -called European “bazooka”.
Use Cauti: no official confirmation
By American, the White House has not yet confirmed the progress of the negotiations. Indeed, Donald Trump, intervening at an event in Washington, said: “If the European Union will open its markets to the US products, we will lower the duties”.
Another US official clarified that the interviews remain open and that the final decision will depend on the president Trump, who maintains the last word. On the EU, Commissioner Sefcovic has intensified the contacts with Lutnick, having already four times in Washington since April.
Dice of 15%: how it works and affected sectors
The European automotive sectorhistorically among the most targeted by commercial retaliation and today in extreme crisis, it could be again at the center of the next compromise: currently hit by duties of 27.5%could be included in the perimeter of the agreement as long as Brussels digests some technical standards with stars and stripes. Washington relaunches an apparently “flat” proposal: a 15% withdrawal valid for everyone, to be retouched with exceptions still to be decided.
The basis of the ceiling would rotate around the clause of the “Most favorite nation” (MFN), so far used in moderation by both the banks of the Atlantic, with one average rates around 4.8%. In what promises to be a game with joints, some strategic sectors could breathe a sigh of relief: aeronautics, medical equipment, timber and alcohol. Nothing to do, however, on thesteel and aluminum: on this front the red line of Trump remains fixed to an absurd 50%.
The impact on Made in Italy
If you really came to a 15% linear withdrawal on all European goods, for Made in Italy it would be a Cold shower of almost 23 billion euros. The Centro Studi di Confindustria has made projections and concluded that the sectors with greater added value would be lost as machinery and pharmaceuticals, but also food and automotive would undergo non -negligible repercussions.
Not just the duties weigh. The dollar, in the beaten of 13.5% since the beginning of the year, gives the Americans an extra competitive advantage that acts as a masked tax on our exports. A double slap for Italian companies, which risk paying pledge even where they manage to recover a part of the orders elsewhere. According to Confindustria, the clear loss It would still be on 12 billion.
