A moderate increase in US consumer prices in July leaves intact the possibilities of a cut in interest rates by Federal Reserve in September, with the duties of President Donald Trump who have shown mostly modest impacts so far.
Headline data
According to the American Bureau of Labor (BLS), consumer prices recorded, in July 2025, an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis, after +0.3% of the previous month and compared to +0.2% expected by analysts.
The home index has increased by 0.2% in July, representing the main factor of the monthly increase of all items. The food index has remained unchanged over the month, with the index relating to food products outside the home, increasing by 0.3% and that relating to food products at home down by 0.1%. On the contrary, the energy products index dropped by 1.1% in July, while the petrol index decreased by 2.2% over the month.
On an annual basis, the growth of inflation was 2.7%, equal to the previous month and less than expected by the consensus (+2.8%). The energy index decreased by 1.6% in the 12 months ended in July. The food index has increased by 2.9% in the last year.
Core data
The “core” installments, i.e. the price of consumer consumer prices of the most volatile components such as food and energy, more observed by the FED, recorded an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis, ( +0.3% estimated by the market), after +0.2% of the previous month.
Tendential growth stands at +3.1%, above 3% of the consensus and after +2.9% detected in June.
I change at the Bureau of Labor Statistics
The report on July inflation is the first important publication of data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics since Trump fired the president after a report on employment less than expectations. Trump said, without evidence, that Erika Mcentarfer, at the head of the agency since 2024, had “manipulated” federal data on hiring to damage it politically.
Yesterday, Trump announced his decision to appoint Ej Antoni, an economist of the conservative Heritage Foundation who in the past had criticized the BLS, head of the agency.
