Analyzing The Russian-Ucraino conflict From a diplomatic point of view it can be seen as from the fateful invasion of the February 24, 2022, Western chancelleries led by Washington have refused to enter into negotiations with the Russian Federation as long as the latter did not respect Independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine accepting, without counterparts, the Total retreat from all the Ukrainian territories occupied in 2014 and in 2022. The recent openings carried out against Fly from the new Trump Administration they completely sparked the cards on the table opening New scenarios on the possible evolution of the war. Just today 27 EU countries will hold a summit in videoconference to confront the recent dialogue between Trump and the French president Macron, while US and Ukraine are finalizing an agreement on rare lands.
The first three years of the war: the irreconcilable positions of Russia and Ukraine
With the announcement of the implementation of the so -called “Special military operation”the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin He gave the signal for the beginning of the Russian Vicion of Ukraine. Contrary to the original plans that presupposed a failure of the opposing state structure in a few days, the Russian blitzkrieg It soon turned into one War of attrition who put to the test the ability of resistance both of Russia and of the varied western front in support of the Ukrainian military effort. Beyond the war events in and of itself, the fundamental aspect of these first Three years of war It was the total refusal by the contenders to go down to any compromise with the opposing part, becoming in fact Prisoners of the logic of the “Game at Zero Sum”.
From Moscow it was constantly highlighted that, to reach a solution of the geopolitical dispute, it was necessary that Ukraine agreed to suffer a remarkable one territorial mutilation and a parallel process of Military downsizing such as to deprive it of the substantial possibility of defending itself effectively in the case of future enemy military actions, while at the same time the western partners of Kiev had to recognize the “Pre -emption rights” of Moscow on the nation close for a long time considered an integral and inalienable part of the Russian sphere of influence. Kiev, on the other hand, reiterated on several occasions that any type of negotiation with Russia would have been impossible if not after the complete retreat from all the occupied territories (about the 20% of the original surface of Ukraine) and the introduction of a series of international guarantees for the country’s future security: in practice Ukraine access in the EU And the adhesion to NATO.
These irreconcilable positions and maximalists have had the effect of helping to transform the war into a real “Test of strength” globally that has contributed to redesigning the planetary geopolitical balances, with the West increasingly flattened on the American positions in total support of Kiev and the “Rest of the world” who, increasingly openly, began to collaborate with Moscow by providing it with a series of “strategic sides” (among which the now infamous must be mentioned “Triangulation”) which have allowed Russia to surprisingly support the diplomatic and financial impact of the so -called “War of sanctions”. The final result of all these sums was that, albeit among a thousand difficulties, the Russian-paese systemand in particular his war machinebegan to prevail while the strategic options of Kiev and his western partners began to reduce themselves. Not only that: the prolongation of the war has brought out a series of critical issues in the western deployment that had previously not been evaluated in an exhaustive way, starting with the internal stability of the central country of the Atlantic alliance, the United States of America.
Trump’s role in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
Numerous times, during the course of interviews and public events, the President of the United States Donald Trump He said that, with him as a tenant in the White House, “This war would never have broken out” and that “Only he had the power to make her end immediately”. Most of the commentators have attributed a value of “Boutade” For internal use and consumption, but the latest developments would instead seem to focus unexpectedly in the opposite direction. On the one hand, in fact, it seems that the American president has forcefully thawed the dialogue remained interrupted with Russia and, on the other, he is pursuing a policy of “Media delegitimization” of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyfirst considered the pillar of the dignity and pride of his country and now expired in the fiction that belongs to the movement Maga (“Make America Great Again”) To little more than an “illegitimate dictator”.
This radical change of rhetoric has not gone unnoticed and has generated a series of shock waves both political and internationally internationally. Although on the Russian side Trump’s actions were welcomed with a series of cautious openings On Putin and all his entourage, in the western field (and even more in Ukraine) Trump’s words led numerous commentators to shout at “scandal” When not to the real “betrayal”. To add salt to the wounds he thought about it Elon Muskwhich also plays the institutional role of administrator of the Department of Government efficiency and the head of the president, and considered by many to be true as true “Gray Eminence” of the Trump Administration, who joined the media grill to the detriment of the leader of Kiev.
But the initiative that left most of the observers open was the request from Washington to obtain a Ukraine from Ukraine “compensation” To cover the costs of the support and aid provided by the USA to Ukraine over the years, without however offering any type of in exchange “Security guarantee” As requested by Kiev. This compensation, to be obtained above all through the sale of huge quantities of rare earthwas evaluated by Trump himself in 530 billion dollars. To put things in perspective, according to estimates of the International Monetary Fund, the value of the Ukrainian GDP in nominal terms for the year 2025 is of 189.83 billion dollarswhile adopting the methodology of Royal GDP with the same purchasing power (PPP), this figure would rise to 684.18 billion dollars. These numbers are enough to understand that a request like this, if it was actually performed, would potentially have a deleterious effect on the already dying economy of Ukraine and, consequently, on the entire system-paeous.
What to expect now: is it possible that Kiev accepts the agreement with Moscow?
It is extremely difficult to predict what can happen now. Although a series of meetings have already occurred among the representatives of the countries involved, a real negotiation Between Washington and Moscow It has not yet been officially inaugurated. It is not even clear whether this strategic negotiation will be limited to these two actors or there will be other participants such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, China And, of course, the same Ukraine. Both diplomatic practice and logic would like Ukrainians to be able to tell their negotiating table in order not to be forced, after dealing with the consequences of three years of total war, to undergo the burden of being imposed what we could call one “Carthaginian peace”.
There is the possibility, not at all to be excluded, that Kiev completely reject the agreement and decides to continue fighting despite everything, because the continuation of the war it would be for the leadership, and even for a good part of the people, preferable to a peace That condemns to poverty the next ten generations of Ukrainians. Another great unknown is constituted by the European Union and by the Non -EU European members of NATO (for example Norway), who no longer feeling sufficiently guaranteed by the new American course could decide in whole or in part not to align with desired of the two main actors, continuing to support Ukraine despite everything. There is therefore nothing more to do if not to continue to monitor the situation waiting for events to give us an answer.
