One closes one Weak week PEr the world financial markets, from one side to the other of the ocean, with the Frankfurt stock exchange that benefited from the creation of a special fund for the infrastructures of 500 billion euros to strengthen the country’s defense and economy. The attention of the investors also focused on the ECB meeting and on the slip of the US duties on cars for Canada and Mexico, which has attenuated the fears of a harsh global commercial war.
ECB: Could it be the last cut?
The Board of Directors of the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to reduce the three reference interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected by analysts. Therefore, the interest rates on deposits at the Central Bank, the main refinancing operations and on marginal refinancing operations will be reduced to 2.50%respectively, 2.65%and 2.90%, with effect from 12 March 2025. Frankfurt states that “the disappointment process is well started” and that “the trend of inflation has continued to reflect almost the expectations of our experts and Projections are strictly in line with previous inflation prospects “.
The ECB has changed the tone about restrictive policystating that “monetary policy is becoming significantly less restrictive”, a affirmation a little more from the hawk than we expected.
It is probably the last “well -defined” cut, since the opinions of officials about the future of monetary policy diverge with each other, says Nicolas Forest, that is Cantiam. Some policy makers, including Schnabel, have expressed themselves as favor of a break, claiming that interest rates are approaching the neutral level and that monetary policy has become less restrictive. Others provide for further cuts of taxi, citing slow economic growth and the escalation of the commercial war. President Lagarde remains dependent on the data and will revalue the meeting situation after meeting, given the very complex economic and geopolitical panorama.
Looking at the Federal Reserve, duties are expected to have a significant impact on inflation and it is likely that the cuts in the rates of the American central bank will be hindered in the coming months. At the meeting of March 19, the market provides that the Fed leaves the cost of money unchanged, but investors will also look at the words of the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, to have indications on the trajectory of the US monetary policy.
US jobs created in February under expected
In the United States, iThe report on February employment has disappointed expectations, with 151,000 new jobs created in the non -agricultural sector compared to the previous month, against a forecast of analysts of 170,000 units. However, this is the 50th consecutive month of employment growth. The unemployment rate risen from 4%to 4.1%, while the Consensus provided for a 4%confirmation.
In EuropeGerman industrial orders decreased by 7% in January compared to the previous month, well under the expectations. The industrial production in Spain, in January, fell by 1% both on a monthly and annual basis, while the Eurozone GDP in the 4th quarter of 2024 was still revised (increase of 0.2% on a sequential basis and 1.2% on an annual basis).
The euro is strengthened in the $ 1.08 area
Also thanks to the DDollar and dollarfor the uncertainties about the US economy, the euro rally was accentuated during the week by going to the maximums since the beginning of last November, despite the new cutting of reference rates of reference by the ECB. The euro surge took place after the leap of market rates on the public obligation, triggered by the agreement between CDU and SPD, in Germany, to overcome the constitutional limits on deficit expenses. According to the Financial Times, the greatest appreciation is looming on a weekly budget from 2009 to today.
Oil prices to minimums from 2021
The tensions due to the prospect of a global commercial war, with the new duties imposed by the Trump Administration in the USA and, the relaxing moves of the flooded oil exporters, the OPEC+, which includes Russia, have slid the oil prices at the minimums from 2021 to the offer that had been imposed on.
The weekly performance of bags
The palm of the ups and dials, this week, is conquered by the Frankfurt square which brings home about 2% at home. The climb of Paris +0.23% is fractional while London slips by 0.87%. Madrid Lima 0.10% and Milan 0.08%. The ending also prefigured for the Wall Street bag.
The best and worst in Piazza Affari
In Piazza Affari, Leonardo brings home a 10.7%rise: the title ran together with the big names in Europe, on expectations for an increase in spending. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at the end of the London summit, Ukraine and safety, said it “urgently remedies Europe”. European leaders have reached a general agreement on the need to increase the spending for defense and military skills. The best Blue Chips is Buzzi (+18.8%) who benefited from the German maxi-plane: the group is in fact the second concrete manufacturer in the country, after Heidelberg. Also well, Nexi +10% and Campari +8.3%. Among the banks, Unicredit +4.9%are good, BPER +4%and in the Savings Managed Fineco with a +7.1%. On the side of the discounts, the descent of Amplifon -14.8% heavy which published the counts 2024. Brunello Cucinelli -10.6% and Saipem -9.5% also down.
