Any prediction that concerns actions And investmentsas is evident, must be taken with a grain of salt. However, thestock market performance in 2025 it could be affected by the weight of some trends that should not be underestimated.
Wars, geopolitical tensions, artificial intelligence, growing public debt, the trend of the dollar and a number of other factors could certainly impact the markets.
The general trend, according to analysts, is that of a new push for growth in the global economy which will follow the path already traced in 2024.
The real estate market
If the cost of money in Europe were to follow the trend of 2024, with the ECB cutting rates four times from June to December, the mortgages hey loans they would become more accessible. This, on the one hand, would reduce the installments of the mortgages and in particular those with variable rates already stipulated.
On the other hand, however, there would be a new rush for bricks which would result in the rise of property prices and rents. The market, therefore, would experience two opposing trends: more advantageous mortgages for more expensive homes. Anyone who intends to invest in bricks and mortar is forewarned.
Technology
Asset manager AJ Bell expects stock markets to jump, especially in technology. Since the invention of the wheel, every prediction in the technology sector has always been a gamble. Remember, by the way, when in 1977 Ken Olson of Digital Equipment Corporation declared that “there is no reason why every individual should have a computer in his home”. Or when in 1946 Darryl Zanuck (20th Century Fox) declared that “television won’t last, people will get tired of sitting in front of a plywood box every night”.
The reasonable certainty is that the Big Techand in particular, those operating in the field ofartificial intelligencethey will increase their turnover. The crux of the matter, left to investors, is to understand which ones will dominate the market and which ones will be swallowed up by the ruthless competition.
Lower rates, on the other hand, make it easier toaccess to credit for companies that feel thus stimulated to invest.
Bitcoin
Chris Crawford (Crawford Fund Management), claims that during 2025 “financial advisors and institutions will integrate Bitcoin into their portfolios”. The Bitcoin rally, therefore, is by no means over as expected.
The public debt
All the major economies have been carrying immense public debt for years. Debt that could push governments to look for ways to increase revenue (read “taxes”) o cut expenses (read “spending review”). The economy that influences the others more than any other is today the American one: “President-elect Trump’s political package could even accelerate the growth of public debtwhich has already reached a record level of 36 billion dollars (34.3 billion euros),” said Russ Mold (AJ Bell). Currently, annual interest expenditure on US debt exceeds $1 billion, which is more than the defense budget.
The duties
Analysts predict the economic growth of the United Stateswhile the protectionist policy announced by President-elect Donald Trump could cripple China and the EU. Tariffs could also fuel inflation in the United States, leading to Fed intervention. Less spending on US imports would lead to a decrease in circulation of the dollarwhich is the currency used in world trade. This, Mould highlights, could lead to “the drying up of global liquidity, with potentially deleterious consequences”. Furthermore, consider that many emerging countries contract debt in dollars.
Arms race
Both Trump in the USA and Ursula von der Leyen in united Europe are pushing for the arms race. This is expected to cause the prices of companies in the defense supply chain to skyrocket.
