The United States is pressuring Ukraine to accept a 28-point peace plan that includes giving up Kiev to large portions of territory (including Crimea and Donbass) today under its control and which it grants large concessions to Russiaincluding a ban on any future expansion of the NATO alliance in Europe. Washington would like the agreement to be concluded quickly: US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll presented the plan to President Volodymyr Zelensky Thursday in writing.
The administration described the plan as a “dynamic document”subject to change based on discussions with the parties involved: according to informed sources, Ukraine has shown itself positive on many points during the negotiations and would also have managed to include some of his requests. However, many aspects of the negotiation seem unbalanced on Moscow’s positions, casting doubt on the future sustainability and diplomatic balance of the agreement.
The recognition of Russian Crimea and Donbass: what the peace plan says
The plan proposes to confirm the sovereignty of Ukraine and to establish a non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe, with Moscow not invading neighboring countries and NATO not expanding further. It provides for the de facto recognition of Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions as Russian, the freezing of contact lines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia areas and the creation of one demilitarized zone in Donetsk under Russian control. Ukrainian forces will therefore have to withdraw completely from the region Donetskparts of which are currently under their control.
The document also plans to limit the Ukrainian Armed Forces to 600,000 effectivecompared to over 900,000 currently, and to include in the country’s constitution the commitment not to seek membership of the Born. Trump would preside over a “Board of Peace” in charge of supervising the ceasefire and the implementation of the plan, similar to that proposed for the truce in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. The US sanctions Russia would be removed in agreed phases and Moscow would be invited to rejoin G8ending its years of international isolation following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the forced annexation of Crimea in 2014.
The document also provides that 100 billion dollars of frozen Russian sovereign assets are invested in a US-led project to rebuild Ukrainewith Washington receiving 50% of the initiative’s profits. The remaining frozen Russian funds would be earmarked for a US-Russia joint investment vehicle for the development of “common projects in specific sectors”.
All parts they would receive amnesty for actions carried out during the war, which presumably means that Russian officials and soldiers could not be prosecuted for war crimes. Furthermore, the plan also provides that theUkraine holds elections within 100 days from the conclusion of an agreement: Kiev, in any case, will be able to access the European market and aspire to join the EU.
The crux of security guarantees
The plan in 28 points it simply states that “Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.” In parallel, according to official sources, the United States presented the Ukrainians with another draft agreement, which includes a security guarantee modeled on theArticle 5 of NATOwhich would commit the United States and its European allies to treating an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the whole “transatlantic community”.
It establishes that any future “significant, deliberate and prolonged armed attack” by Russia against Ukraine “will be considered an attack that threatens the peace and security of the transatlantic community,” and that the United States and its allies will respond accordingly, including the use of military force. The White House said Russia has been informed of the draft, but the proposal will also need to be discussed with the European partners and may still be subject to change.
Ukraine’s doubts and the future of negotiations
Kiev has long maintained that such conditions exist unacceptable for any peace negotiations, as they would leave it vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Zelensky now has a proposal in hand that would force him to cede even more territory Ukrainian than Russia currently controls and to see Russia welcomed back into the international communitywith sanctions lifted and amnesty for war crimes.
The ban on future NATO expansion transforms Ukraine into a formally sovereign but militarily and strategically bound state, unilaterally strengthening Russia’s position. The plan guarantees a formal peace, but if the final conditions remained those of today, Ukraine would pay a very high cost: loss of strategic territories, military reduction, legitimization of Russia and limitations on political and military sovereignty.
For Kiev, ceding the territories involved means losing resources, industrial infrastructure and economic control, as well as a strong symbolic and moral impact on the population. On the other hand, net of these painful concessions, the plan would offer Zelensky a stronger guarantee against further Russian aggression than seemed possible listening to Trump’s statements so far. Obtaining these guarantees was Zelensky’s main goal in the negotiations and is the first time that the United States puts them down in black and white.
At the same time, the decisions of the Ukrainian leader at this stage also weigh on internal political weaknessin the wake of the energy sector corruption scandal involving ministers and figures close to Zelensky. The Ukrainian president said he expected to discuss the plan with Trump “in the coming days,” saying any deal must lead to a “dignified peace” that respects the sovereignty of Kiev.
