The first semester has just ended and was full of events that have generated volatility on the markets: the conflict between Israel and Iran, the fears for new turbulence in oil markets, with the Brent burned by about 10% and then stabilize aroundthe 75 dollars (level of early April), with repercussions on pump prices. The concerns related to uncertainty on duties also persist, even if companies have shown a certain resilience in this context. This is what emerges from an analysis of Alessandro Tentori, Chief Investment Officer Europa of Axa IM.
The macro painting and forecasts
Looking at the consent predictions, – notes Tentori – it is interesting to note how a fork has been opened among the forecasts for GLThe United States, who have been revised, and those for the eurozone, who have not changed. This discrepancy is a consequence of the commercial policies of the Trump administration. Analysts and economists have not revised the growth estimate at all e inflation for the eurozone, While it was heavily reviewed that of the growth of the US economy, where it started with a GDP more than 2% (now at 1.4%) for 2025 and with an inflation at 2.5% (now 3%). The provision of consent for the Eurozone growth in 2026 is was revised at 1.1%, but it appears rather low. THEn China, Inflation still struggles to recover after a period of disinflation linked to structural factors, but both on the tax front and on the monetary level, significant progress is being made, consequently China GDP could approach 5% this year (compared to the 4.5% estimated by consent). In which expectations of monetary policy do they translate these macro estimates of consent? The market includes a more aggressive Fed than the ECB. The market still expects two cuts of the rates by the Fed, but this view differs from that of Axa IM analysts. The point is that, at the moment, the Fed has no reason to reduce the cost of money, nor on the front of inflation nor on that of growth. It is therefore not to be excluded that in the end it shows themselves more at least at all respect for what was taken for granted by the markets.
No risk of recession in the US in the short term
At the moment there does not seem to be a concrete risk of recession. In the USA, the ability to generate profits remained unchanged and technological shock is having a more favorable impact on American companies than European ones. Looking at the data and indicators on the US economy, even a signal of excessive inflation does not emerge (neither too high nor too low).
Raw materials
Recently, ithe price of oil He recorded a strong volatility. Uncertainty about the Tugua between Iran and Israel remains uncertain, and it should be considered that a possible closure of the Hormuz Strait would have a significant impact on the markets of raw materials and on energy supply in Europe. Historically, every time a war in the Middle East broke out – from the 1973 Yom Kippur war to the conflict of Gaza started in 2023 – the price of oil has increased in the following 12 months. It is therefore possible that from here to the summer of 2026 the price remains on higher levels: a risk factor not to be underestimated in a view to investment.
Market liquidity
There market reaction Shock tend to last less and less. As already observed on other occasions, after the initial shock the markets – affirm the analyst – tend to resize the risk, taking the most favorable scenario. We probably live in a world still drugged by the excess liquidity introduced by the central banks: just think that the post-asset day has lasted just a week.
Inflation remains viscose
“In the coming months – Tentori underlines – I expect a convergence between the surveys and data on inflation, given that all indicators report the risk of a resumption of inflation in the USA. As for real dataUS inflation He remained constantly below expectations during the year “.
Markets
The Rally dell’s & P 500 was not followed by everyone: mOlthi Investors have not increased their positions during the rise phase. If we were to attend a further increase compared to historical levels, – continues Tentori – it is likely that these investors will be sucked into the market, contributing to a further thrust of the price lists. Will the European markets continue to overcome the American ones in the second half of the semester? The European market will probably keep a good performance, but probably will not do better than the American one. In general, the Council for the construction of the portfolio – says Tentori – “is to be less smart and a little more flexible in moving on the different variables”.
The choice that can prove more rewarding? Be humble and rely on specialists.
