An inflationary “cure” postal “cure” slowdown, structural problems that haunt specific sectors, such as that of the European car, dependence on global chains and Trump’s protectionist turning point are conditioning the economy and the quarterly results of listed companiesalso in the form of deterioration of the prospects.
The season of profits of the first quarter of 2025 is entering the heart, this is the Week dedicated to the magnificent 7but a “poor visibility of companies on future prospects“, Deriving from the context of the uncertainty of global trade.
So what to expect from the results of the Big European and American? And how will the duties effect impact? Second Chiara RobbaHead of Ldi Equity by Generali asset managementit is legitimate to expect a 5% drop on an annual basis of profits for action (EPS) of the Stoxx 600 companies (European blue-chips) and one 6% growth On an annual basis of the index societies S & P 500 (American), lower than estimates at the beginning of the year.
The effect of the duties on the economy
According to the expert of Generali AM,
“Today, We are unable to estimate damage that the duties will cause global growth “.
President Lagarde indicated a Impact of -40 basis points on GDP of the euro area for US duties by 20%. And although a lower growth will have a disinflation effect, the net impact on inflation will depend on the answer EU and the currency reactions (the Euro-Dollaro change). From a geographical point of view, it seems that Germany and Italy are more subject to negative impacts compared to France or Spain, but everything is still to be seen in the next 90 days of negotiations.
Impact different sector by sector
At the sectoral level, the Analysis of Generali AM expects that i Internal consumption sectors like the services of public utilitythe telecommunications and the sector real estate they will register Better results. On the contrary, the sectors most exposed to US exports, such as Medtech, the automotive sector, and luxury should undergo most of the discount revisions of profits in the event of a duties of 20%. And the growth of the profit by action (EPS) in the EU could reset.
Also for Reuters there are
“different vulnerable areasparticularly in the cyclical sectors – energy, real estate, materials, industry and consumables – where profit growth expectations have been reduced to an average of 65% from 31 December. Some of the most significant negative reviews occurred in food sector“, But“ also expectations in automotive sector I am already in strong decline ”.
In the USA, eyes on the magnificent 7
Despite the heavy correction of the S&P 500 index, the Consent estimates on profits per action (EPS) 2025 of the companies included in the S&P 500 index They only decreased by 2% since the beginning of the year.
Analysts – explains Chiara Robba of Generai AM – provide that the profit per action of the S&P 500 index of the first quarter will grow by 6% on an annual basisa lower level than previous quarters and lower than the 11% growth expectations at the beginning of the year. The energy and material sectors have recorded the worst negative reviews, while the financial sector has remained unchanged.
In reality, the last Factset forecast of 25 April, indicated for the companies of the 500 average growth of APS 10.1% in the first quartercertainly lower than the backward quarters, but still double -digit.
Some of the titles Mega-capitalization technological Like Microsoft and Google have already published the results on April 25, while this will be the week of Amazon and Meta (April 30) and Apple (May 2). Nvidia will close the tail (May 28), but by May 9, 85% of the S&P 500 index market capitalization will have published the results of the first quarter. Consent provides that the growth of magnificent 7 will exceed again that of rest of the indexbut with the narrowest gap from the first quarter of 2023.
“However, even here, the impact of rates and escalation with China could be heard on the revisions of profits”
comments Robba.
Gray forecasts for Europe
In Europe, the useful season began with LVMH and ASML. The Stoxx 600 index lost 10% compared to the March peak, while consent estimates on Useful for Action (EPS) 2025 have decreased less than 2% since the beginning of the year.
“Considering the uncertainty about the duties and the probable bad prospects of the companies, they are further cuts predictable“
highlights Robba.
For companies included in the Pan-European Stoxx 600 index, le Consent estimates now include a 5% drop On an annual basis of profits per action (EPS) in the first quarter. The energy sector will be among the weakestwhile technology and industry could offer some positive contributions. However, it should not be underestimated that the appreciation of the euro of 10% compared to the dollar since the beginning of the year, with a gearbox at 1.13, it can constitute a problem When about 60% of the staxx 600 revenues are generated outside Europe.
