What’s happening in Sudan and how we got to this point: the story of a forgotten war

In Sudan, the paramilitary forces of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have just taken possession of the city of Al Fashir, located in western Darfur. According to at least thirteen videos released by the paramilitary group itself, hundreds of killings of civilians were committed.

While the world’s spotlight remains on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, in Sudan a brutal war is taking place which has already caused thousands of deaths and thousands of civilians fleeing. The country, in fact, has fallen into one civil war in April 2023after a fierce power struggle erupted between the regular army and a powerful paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (Rapid Support Forces, RSF).

It is estimated that more than 150,000 people have died across the country, and that around 14 million have fled their homes, in what the United Nations calls the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. The conflict resulted in a widespread famine and allegations of genocide in the western region of Darfurwith great concern for the residents of the city of El Fasherrecently conquered by RSF militiamen. With the Civil War entering its third yearSudan’s two rival factions remain trapped in one struggle for power. But how did we get to this point? And who fights against whom?

From al-Bashir regime to revolution (1989–2021)

For the first half of the 20th century, Sudan was a joint protectorate of Egypt and the United Kingdomknown as the “Anglo-Egyptian Condominium”. In 1956, the two countries signed a treaty formally renouncing sovereignty, giving rise to the Independent Republic of Sudan. There dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir profoundly marked the post-colonial period of the country: Bashir took power with a coup d’état in 1989having served in the Egyptian army during the colonial period and later as an officer of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

As president, Bashir was the protagonist of some of the most dramatic pages in Sudanese history: the Second Civil Warthe secession of South Sudan and the conflict in Darfur. The latter, which broke out in 2003was later convicted by the International Criminal Court as a genocide to the detriment of non-Arab populations (including the Fur, Zaghawa and Masalit) in the western region of the country. During his regime, Bashir imposed a strict interpretation of sharia, used private militias and a morality police to enforce his decrees. His power remained until 2019although, in the last decade of government, it was increasingly contested by popular protests who called for democracy, essential services and a new system of government.

There Sudanese revolution culminated inApril 2019 with a coup d’état carried out jointly by the SAFled by the general Abdel Fattah al-Burhanand by the Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary force under the command of Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalowhich has its origins in the infamous Janjaweed militiasaccused of genocide and ethnic cleansing against the non-Arab populations of Darfur.

Burhan took over the leadership of the Transitional Sovereign Council, with Hemedti as deputy, supported by other military leaders and some civilian representatives. Among these, he was chosen Abdalla Hamdokeconomist and development expert, as prime minister. During his short term, Hamdok attempted to contain Sudan’s serious economic crisis and project an image of stability to the international community. However, in theOctober 2021SAF and RSF organized a new coup d’étatsuspending the Constitution and ending the fragile democratic transition.

The coup d’état and the war between generals

After the 2021 coup, Abdalla Hamdok came briefly reinstated as prime minister in November of the same year, after agreeing to hand over part of the executive powers to generals Burhan and Hemedti. However, political and military pressure forced him to resign in January 2022: Since then, Sudan it no longer had effective civilian leadership. Burhan remained de facto head of state, while Hemedti continued to lead the RSF.

In early 2022, a growing rift opened between the two over Sudan’s future and the path to civilian government. The main points of conflict concerned the RSF integration plan into the regular army and, above all, who would command the new unified military apparatus. Many observers argued that both generals wanted to hold on to power, reluctant to give up wealth and influence.

The April 15, 2023after days of tension and suspicious movements of RSF troops in various cities, fighting broke out between the two factions. It is not clear who fired first, but the clashes spread quickly: the RSF occupied a large part of the capital Khartoum (subsequently reconquered by the SAF). At the same time, during the conflict the RSF would have exploited the control of some of the gold mines of Sudan, according to various sources, profiting from the smuggling of the metal to the United Arab Emirates. The Sudanese army accused the Emirates to support Hemedti’s militias and even to have conducted drone strikes on Sudanese territory, claims that Abu Dhabi has firmly denied.

Several non-governmental organizations, including Human Rights Watch, have collected evidence documented by the Sudanese paramilitaries themselves of numerous mass atrocities committed during the conflict, such as house-to-house raids to exterminate the occupants, resulting in piles of corpses and bloodstains visible even from satellites, sparking accusations of ethnic cleansing and war crimes.

Humanitarian access remains a concern of many international actors, including the United States, which has asked the UN Security Council to authorize the delivery of aid through Chad. Conditions in the country, already severely compromised before April 2023, have worsened further since then.

Sahel