In recent days, Iran has returned to the center of international attention due to the wave of protests that exploded since the end of December and the regime’s strong repression (Internet blackout, at least 10,000 arrests and more than 600 victims and several injured). In the midst of the turmoil, Donald Trump did not miss the opportunity to make it known that the military option on the part of the United States remains possible, and announced that those who trade with Iran will suffer tariffs of 25%. Furthermore, the fact that foreign embassies in Iran are inviting their citizens to leave the country does not seem to be a good sign. But how likely is it that the United States will attack Iran, given that the American administration’s attention is very busy on the American continent between Venezuela, Cuba and Greenland?
Greenland is the hottest topic for the Trump administration, which wishes to purchase it for a question of “national security and strategic position in the Russia-China context”, even if the real objective would be to grab this territory for its strategic position for the control of the Arctic Route and for the rare earths in which it is rich. In recent days the American administration has even proposed paying from 10 to 100 thousand dollars per inhabitant to buy Arctic land. The Greenlandic government, however, has reiterated in recent hours that it will not accept in any way to pass under US control, and that the island remains with the Kingdom of Denmark.
The situation is different for Venezuela: after the US operation last January 3 which led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration consolidated its control over Caracas and asserted American dominance over Venezuelan oil.
After the military incursion into Venezuela, Trump also intensified his rhetoric against Cuba, taking away Venezuelan oil from the island and asking the Havana government for “an agreement” with the White House “before it’s too late”, implying that Cuba could be the next victim of US neo-imperialist policy.
With the Trump administration focused on these three fronts, an escalation on Tehran seems unlikely at the moment: it would have costs and risks that are too high even for the USA. However, according to some news agencies it would appear that the Pentagon has already presented Trump with a series of attack options towards Iran, with missile sites and the Iranian nuclear program (already damaged during the 12-day war last June 2025) once again at the center of the plans. The newspaper, however, is quick to say that it is much more likely that Washington – which according to Reuters could meet Iranian officials soon and that contacts are also underway with the opposition – will probably opt for a cyber attack or against the internal Iranian security apparatus, which is causing several deaths and injuries throughout Iran, avoiding in any way to use force and resources on the field.
