An GDP contraction of 0.1%, a dry loss on the export of 2 billion euros e 30 thousand seats of work at risk. These are the estimates developed by the Conflavoro Study Center after Trump’s announcement on the 20% increase in duties against EU products. Although they have been suspended for 90 days, the risk of a revocation is always around the corner.
How much we are dependent on the USA
In 2024, Italian exports to the United States reached 64.7 billion euros, corresponding to 10.4% of the total national exports. The USA are therefore the first non-EU destination market for Made in Italy. In the meantime, the American exports Towards Italy they touched 28.4 billion, with a clear predominance of pharmaceutical products, chemists, industrial machinery and means of transport. With an Italian GDP of 2,192 billion euros and a total exports greater than 623 billion (equal to 28.5% of the gross domestic product), the contribution of the United States is crucial and difficult to replace in the short term.
According to the data of the Conflavoro Study Center, the introduction of the new duties could entail a loss of 700 million For the agri -food sector, with significant impacts on wine, cheeses and olive oil, causing a reduction of 5 thousand jobs. The fashion and luxury sector could undergo a loss of about 400 million, with the loss of 4 thousand seats, while the mechanical and automotive market could face a contraction of about 500 million, with the same employment loss of 4 thousand units.
How many jobs we will lose
By adding the sectoral impacts, the total loss of exports estimated is 2.23 billion euros, with a GDP contraction effect of 0.1% (about 2 billion) and up to 30 thousand jobs at risk, mainly in the sectors agri -food (5,700 seats), fashion and luxury (4,500 seats) e mechanics and automotive (4,500 seats).
As for public spending, the Conflavoro Study Center estimates an increase of 160 million euros for the CIG/Cigs and 125 million for the provision of Naspi. These estimates could vary according to the duration and integration of customs measures, but offer a first framework of the overall economic impact.
| Sector | Places at risk |
|---|---|
| Agri -food | 5,700 |
| Fashion and luxury (including cosmetics and perfumery) | 4,500 |
| Mechanics/automotive | 4,500 |
| Design furniture | 3,400 |
| Naval shipbuilding | 3,000 |
| Tourism (indirect) | 2,300 |
| Other sectors (micro -enterprises mainly crafts and manufacturing) | 1,000 |
| General induced | 5,600 |
| Total | 30,000 |
The most affected regions
Particularly vulnerable compared to the new duties, according to the Conflavoro Study Center, the Regions of Center–Northbeating heart of national exports to the United States. The exports of the main regions are as follows:
- Lombardy (14.3 billion euros);
- Emilia Romagna (10.4 billion);
- Tuscany (9.1 billion);
- Veneto (7.3 billion);
- Piedmont (6.4 billion).
Also the Center-south, While with a less relevant market, it records important exports to the USA:
- Lazio (5.4 billion);
- Campania (3.2 billion);
- Marche (3.2 billion);
- Puglia (2.1 billion);
- Sicily (1.6 billion);
- Calabria (1.2 billion).
Conflavoro’s proposal: “10 billion from the PNRR”
To prevent the duties from being a very heavy boulder on the Italian economy, Roberto Capobianco, national president of Conflavoro, puts several proposals on the table to help the SMEs:
“We propose to activate a 10 billion euro plan, deriving from unused funds of the PNRR, on the lines of Repowereu, to safeguard the most exposed supply chains, strengthen the made in Italy and support the exports of SMEs also towards alternative markets. We must avoid a war of the duties that would easily become a war of the worlds, causing a further increase in the cost of money that would put in serious difficulty access to credit for all SMEs “.
