The INPS closes 2025 with a financial management surplus of 7.5 billion euros, a result far higher than expected, which were estimated at 2.1 billion. To certify it is the note of setting up to the budget approved by the CIV (address and supervision committee). The final data show investigations (therefore the revenue) for 565.4 billion euros (+11.9 billion on the expected) and commitments (i.e. the outputs) for 557.9 billion (+6.5 billion). Although the financial framework therefore appears in marked improvement, however several critical issues remain.
Economic balance still negative
The exercise of the year, in fact, remains at a loss. The economic result is at -1.7 billion euros: a deficit which, albeit drastically reduced from the initially estimated -9.3 billion, confirms the structural tensions of the system. The improvement is the result of a more favorable balance between the value of production (441.4 billion) and the costs (443.5 billion), to which is added a positive contribution of 350 million from the item “other proceeds and charges”.
The social security expenditure continues to represent a very relevant cost item. 326.7 billion were allocated for pensions and 21.2 billion for income support, of which 15.2 billion intended for unemployment treatments (+2.8% on forecasts).
36.5 billion are provided for social inclusion, divided as follows:
- 23.4 billion for civil disability;
- 6.8 billion for checks and social pensions;
- 5.7 billion for inclusion checks (stable resources);
- 641 million for training support (stable resources)
Revenue and exits
On the current revenue front, the CIV indicates that the contributions paid amount to 289.7 billion euros, while the transfers from the State reach 167.6 billion. As for the outputs, the main items are:
- 429 billion for institutional services (pensions and supports);
- 17.1 billion for contributory relief;
- 3 billion for operating expenses.
The expenditure for the services in support of the family is estimated at 27.1 billion, of which 20.2 billion intended for the single check (down 4% compared to previous forecasts).
Thanks to the new budget estimates, the operating result and the shelf of 3 billion previews, the net asset situation at the end of the year is estimated at 36.6 billion, with an improvement of 17.8 billion compared to the forecasts. The administration surplus is also increasing, expected to 129.3 billion (from 125.7 billion in the previous note).
An Institute in the balance
The INPS accounts cannot ignore the macroeconomic context, which for 2025 has shadows on the growth front. The public finance document has in fact revised down the forecasts of Royal GDP, bringing them to 0.6% from the 0.9% estimate contained in the II note of variation. A slowdown in the economy could affect future contributory revenues.
At the same time, the inflation forecasts were revised up, from 1.8% to 2.1%. This will have direct reflections on the pension expenditure of 2026, which will be indexed precisely on this rate. To be further burdened on the outputs of next year, a equalization adjustment of 0.2%is expected. The renewal of pensions for 2025 was in fact provisionally performed at 0.8% (DM 15/11/2024), but the definitive data of inflation 2024 stood at 1%, making a realignment necessary.
The picture that emerges is that of a precarious balance body. On the one hand, the record financial surplus strengthens short -term sustainability of the institute. On the other, the passive economic balance remains an alarm bell on the basic critical issues that weigh on the Italian social security system.
