After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attention is now focused on Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic connection between the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea through the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal. With the possible direct entry of the Yemeni Houthis in support of Iran, and the consequent extension of the crisis to the Red Sea, a new risk scenario is opening up with devastating impacts on global trade and energy supplies on the horizon.
Door of Tears: the strategic role of the Strait for Europe
With the evocative name “Gate of Tears” (or “lament”), the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, with a length of approximately 50 km and a width of 26 km at the narrowest point, represents a forced passage for 12% of global maritime traffic and approximately 25 percent of global container traffic. “For European countries, Bab el-Mandeb – according to what emerges from an ISPI report – is even more important than Hormuz in terms of oil imports. In fact, of the 6.2 million barrels of crude oil in daily transit through Bab el-Mandeb, 3.6 million travel to Europe, the remaining 2.6 million to Asia” while 76% of the barrels of crude oil passing through Hormuz are destined for Asian markets. An essential hub, therefore, also for Italian energy imports and the logistical supply of the Mediterranean.
The impact of the closure of Bab el-Mandeb
The effects of a possible long-term blockade of the Strait are difficult to quantify. As early as November 2023, due to Houthi attacks, traffic through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has halved. A total closure of the Strait would force ships to make detours via the Cape of Good Hope which add 10-14 days of sailing and extra costs of up to 40% per container. Furthermore, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil shipments transited, a possible blockade of this route too would cause one of the most serious supply shocks in recent decades.
Towards 200 dollars a barrel?
In a scenario that sees supply disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran continue until the end of April, Saudi Arabia estimates that the price of oil could exceed $180 a barrel. The consequences of such a leap – according to an analysis by the Wall Street Journal – could reduce demand in the long term or trigger a recession. “The prospects of this energy crisis are worse than those of 2022-2023. And just as measures to limit energy consumption were hypothesized then, we should start thinking about doing so today too” Francesco Sassi, professor of energy geopolitics at the University of Oslo and author of the Energy Geopolitics & Statecraft newsletter, said in a recent interview with Adnkronos. And the Iranian threat to bring the price of oil to 200 dollars a barrel – concludes Sassi – “is more realistic than the assurances” offered by the USA, the EU and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
