Countdown for the most anticipated quarterly of the year. This evening, with US markets closed, Nvidia will publish its results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, in a context of very high expectations and growing nervousness on global stock markets.
The consensus on the numbers
Analysts on average estimate earnings per share of $1.76, up 120% year-on-year, and revenues of $78.6 billion (+79.5% year-on-year). The conference call is scheduled for 11pm Italian time.
The appointment takes on the contours of a real stress test for the artificial intelligence rally that has supported Wall Street in recent months.
Visible Alpha consensus indicates overall revenue of $78.5 billion, with estimates for the Data Center segment revised from $53.8 billion indicated in June 2025 to $72.8 billion currently, representing an increase of 35%. For Bloomberg, we are talking about a turnover of 78.75 billion, with data center revenues expected at 73.24 billion, and an adjusted EPS of $1.764 per share.
The voices of analysts
The sentiment of the financial community remains decidedly constructive. Morgan Stanley speaks of “lasting” demand until 2026, with estimates of sustained growth linked to the new Blackwell chips and the expansion of hyperscalers, while Bank of America expects a classic “beat and raise” scenario and Piper Sandler highlights the potential contribution of China.
Wedbush was optimistic, expecting the leading AI chip supplier to comfortably beat estimates, with Big Tech capital spending expected to reach about $725 billion in 2026.
Gabriel Debach, market analyst at eTorounderlines that expectations count more than numbers and expectations are very high. “It is the condemnation of the market leaders. – he states – The higher you go, the more decisive the comma becomes. The “yes, but…” counts more than the headline number”
David Pascucci of XTB, an 8% change in the stock in one direction or the other corresponds to the creation or destruction of approximately $400 billion in capitalization(
Guidance and critical issues
More than the quarterly numbers, the guidance for the second quarter will determine the market reaction. Analysts expect revenues of around $87 billion: any lower forecast could be interpreted as the first real sign of cooling in AI demand.
Morningstar underlines that the market will mainly monitor Nvidia’s ability to remain in line with the guidance of over $300 billion in revenues in fiscal 2026, as well as the stability of the supply chain and progress in managing production bottlenecks. Also under observation is the update on the Vera Rubin platform, heir to the Blackwell architecture, and the competitive pressure of hyperscalers’ custom ASICs.
The impact on the markets
The event is crucial for the entire tech ecosystem. Numbers higher or lower than expected could have significant repercussions on the performance of the Nasdaq and the semiconductor sector, given Nvidia’s leading role in the AI-related rally. In Europe today’s session proceeds in positive territory, with the DAX up by 0.57% and the FTSE MIB up by 0.55%. Wall Street closed lower on sell-offs in Amazon, Nvidia, Alphabet and other AI heavyweights, with fears of energy-driven inflation fueling concerns about higher rates.
