The stock market listing, when prepared as a strategic growth path and not as a simple market event, produces benefits that go beyond returns for investors. The winning companies on Piazza Affari are in fact a driving force for the country’s real economy: they grow, innovate, hire, internationalise. Clear governance, balanced pricing, visibility towards investors and execution capacity post-IPO are key and measurable elements. This is what emerges from the ninth edition of the “Research Notebooks” of Intermonte, a leading investment banking firm in Italy in the mid & small caps segment, created in collaboration with the Polytechnic University of Milan.
A faithful portrait of the real Italian economy
The research analyzes 363 companies listed on the Italian Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2025 with initial capitalization of less than 1 billion euros, on all lists (Euronext Milan, Euronext STAR Milan and Euronext Growth Milan). The sectoral composition of the sample faithfully reflects the structure of the Italian economy: as many as 65% of them belong to the Consumer, Industrial and Technology sectors, i.e. the most representative sectors of Italian manufacturing and of the country’s real economy in general.
Upon entering the stock market, these companies expressed a total of 25.2 billion euros in aggregate revenues (median per company: 79 million), 3.37 billion euros in EBITDA, 1.18 billion euros in net profit and 107,324 employees, with an average post-IPO free float of 36% and a total capitalization of 32.2 billion euros. Numbers that confirm the economic relevance of an often underestimated segment: in the Italian stock market 90% of trading is concentrated on the 40 blue chips of the FTSE MIB, but the listed Mid Caps and Small Caps analyzed in this research represent a significant sample of the national productive economy and its manufacturing and services fabric.
Anyone who goes public can double the value in 5 years
The companies in the Top 10% of the sample – those with the best stock market returns in the five years following listing – achieve a cumulative return of +173.8% 5 years after listing (already +133.2% after 3 years and +70.2% in the first year), while the best 25% after 5 years generate a return of +49.7% – confirming that more than one company in four has generated significant and lasting returns for its investors.
The analysis of the EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples, calculated for the period 2015-2025 on the sample companies listed since 2011, confirms that the market selectively rewards companies capable of maintaining growth and profitability over time. The median EV/EBITDA multiple remains stable around 8x, with the best 10% at values of 19–31x.
The stock market as a driving force for the growth of society
The analysis of performance 5 years after listing highlights a positive correlation between market returns and economic growth of companies: the companies that recorded the best results on the stock exchange simultaneously increased turnover, employment and profitability significantly.
The companies in the Top 10% of the sample show extraordinary growth also on an industrial level. Revenues more than doubled in the five years after the IPO, with median growth of +195% per company. A growth that is also reflected in profitability: aggregate EBITDA grew by +156% and net profit by +176%. On the employment front, these companies significantly increased their jobs, going from 4,987 to 8,277 employees (+66%).
Equally positive is the result that emerged by broadening the analysis to the Top 25% – over 90 companies – in the five years following listing with an aggregate revenue growth of +102%, while EBITDA and net profit both recorded an increase of +203%; the number of employees increased by over 9,800 units, going from 13,951 to 23,845 (+71%).
“The data from this research offers a concrete answer to those who ask why it is worth listing: the 363 SMEs analyzed already had over 107,000 employees and 25 billion in revenues at the time of entering the stock exchange, and the best performers in the following five years significantly increased jobs and more than doubled revenues – commented Guglielmo Manetti, CEO of Intermonte – These are not just financial data: they are jobs and value distributed in the territories. The listing, done well, it is a real growth accelerator.”
The growth was in many cases fueled by post-IPO acquisition strategies, but the research also highlights numerous cases of companies that have independently increased turnover and market shares, benefiting from the greater visibility and liquidity made available by the listing on the stock exchange. An important lever was internationalisation.
The decalogue for a winning quote
Through statistical regression analysis over a horizon of 1, 3 and 5 years from listing, the research identified the variables significantly correlated with market performance in the medium-long term. A decalogue of good practices emerges:
- Avoid management teams that are too large: an excessively large executive structure is negatively correlated with market prices. The market appreciates lean and focused organisations, capable of making decisions effectively.
- Insert lock-up clauses: the commitment of existing shareholders not to sell their shares for a specific period represents a credible signal of confidence in the company’s prospects and translates into significantly better performance in the medium to long term.
- Establish appropriately sized free float capital: the best performers have an average free float of 42.1% (median 31.8%), a level sufficient to guarantee liquidity to the stock without excessively diluting the control core.
- Avoid excessive underpricing in the initial placement: efficient pricing at the time of the IPO – neither too prudential nor speculative – is a positive signal for the market and is associated with better performance in the medium term.
- Prepare a credible acquisition plan to grow: companies that conduct M&A operations after listing perform better. The market recognizes and rewards external growth strategies as a sign of entrepreneurial ambition and execution capacity.
- Ensuring a strong and authoritative control nucleus among the shareholders: a high ownership concentration among the main shareholders is appreciated by the market as a guarantee of stability, long-term vision and alignment of interests.
- Work to increase analyst coverage over time: the growth in the number of analysts following the stock is positively correlated with returns and represents the primary objective of an effective investor relations activity.
- Promote gender and demographic diversity on the Board of Directors: greater female representation and an average age of the board of around 50–52 years are correlated with better ratings. The market rewards the balanced presence of different experiences, both in terms of gender and generation.
- Avoid the presence of directors with roles in other listed companies: the presence of directors with multiple roles in other listed boards of directors is negatively correlated with performance, as it is perceived as a potential source of less focus or conflicts of interest.
- Maintain a lasting competitive advantage: beyond all the structural and governance variables, the necessary and indispensable condition for obtaining lasting recognition from the market remains the quality of the business project: credible growth objectives, adequate managerial capacity and solid fundamentals.
“The decalogue that we propose is an empirical synthesis of behaviors that have historically distinguished the most successful listings, obviously accompanied by a solid industrial plan oriented towards growth and adequate managerial skills to make it concrete – said Giancarlo Giudici, Full Professor at the Polytechnic University of Milan School of Management and scientific research representative – The hope is that it can guide the choices of those approaching the capital market, helping to make the listing a sustainable growth path and not just a financial event; in Italy we need to attract new professional investors and new capital specialized in listed Mid Caps and Small Caps”.
