The last session of the week was characterized by the red color for the European share markets, after disappointing profits in the consumer goods sector (Puma cut annual estimates due to the weak demand and Volkswagen has revised downward their forecasts for the year on the operating margins), while the US indices are not very moved. Most of the global bags still archives a week.
On the macroeconomic frontit emerged that consumer trust in Italy rebounded in July, while the sentiment of the companies worse after two consecutive months of growth, according to the data released this morning by Istat. In Eurozone in June the M3 slowed its annual growth to +3.3% a/a, but credit to families and businesses was expanding. In Germany in July the IFO index rises to 88.6 points from 88.4 (against expected equal to 89), with modest progress both for the current situation and for expectations.
After a pause widely awaited on interest rates On the part of the ECB, the president Christine Lagarde has lowered the probability of a cut of rates in September, affirming i) that the economic growth of the eurozone could be “slightly better” than expected thanks to the advance of exports in view of the tariff increases, the strengthening of consumption and private investments, the increase in real income and more favorable financing conditions, and II) which, with an inflation currently at 2% on the basis of 2% on the basis of 2% on the basis. Annua, the institution is “in a good position to wait and see”. “Keeping rates at current levels makes sense and the time of the obvious rags or cutting moves is over,” said the member of the Board of Directors Martins Kazaks this morning in an interview with Bloomberg, adding that “in the current situation, a firm monetary policy is appropriate”.
Today’s session
Among the main European bags Pensosa Frankfurt, with a fractional drop of 0.32%, Fortta London, which holds equality, and moderately positive day for Paris, which goes up a fractional +0.21%.
The Milanese list It shows a shy earning gain, with the FTSE MIB that scored +0.31%; On the same line, a small shot forward for the Ftse Italia All-Share, which comes to 43,248 points. The FTSE Italia Mid Cap (-0.2%) is slightly negative; In fractional progress, the Ftse Italia Star (+0.55%).
At the top of the ranking Of the most important securities in Milan, we find Interpump (+5.13%), Nexi (+3.32%), Stellantis (+3.14%) and Moncler (+2.87%). The strongest sales, however, hit Saipem, who finished the counterattacks at -3.27%. Tentenna Prysmian, with a modest reduction of 1.23%. Schwashe day for Fineco, which marks a drop of 1.14%. Small loss for Unipol, which exchanges with -1.13%.
Negotiations on duties
The deadline For commercial negotiations with the United States is set for next Friday, after which the duties that the US administration has threatened to impose on its commercial partners could enter into force unless a bilateral agreement is reached or that the deadline is not postponed. Currently, the EU is the main commercial partner who has not yet finalized a commercial agreement, with the negotiations blocked for several days after the President of the United States Donald Trump sent a letter to Brussels in which he threatened a 30% duty on EU products, higher than that threatened on the occasion of the “Liberation Day” of the President.
However, According to diplomatic sources that spoke with the Financial Timesthe two trade giants are close to reaching an agreement that would impose a 15% duty on most EU exports to the United States. The rate, which would reflect an agreement reached this week between the United States and Japan, would apply to most goods, with some exceptions for products such as aircraft and medical devices. Negotiations to reduce US duties on cars, steel and aluminum would still be underway. Parallel to the interviews, the EU has strengthened the retaliation measures that intends to implement if Trump does not sign an agreement. Yesterday, the Member States voted to impose duties up to 30% on a series of imports from the United States for a value of 90 billion euros, which will enter into force on 7 August in the event of the bankruptcy of the negotiations.
Central banks meetings
After an interlocutory meeting of the ECB This week, the Fed will probably maintain its objective interval for the reference rate at 4.25-4.50% at the end of the two-day meeting of 30 July, in line with the expectations of the market. Among the reasons of waiting, there are the general estate of the labor market, the commercial policy of the administration that remains uncertain and most of the Fed officials which involves an increase in inflation due to the duties. The minutes of the Fed of June revealed that “most of the participants detected the risk that duties may have more persistent effects on inflation”. However, the decision could be divided, since two members of the FOMC, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, suggested that they support a cut in this meeting.
Among other banks Central calendar next week, the Bank of Japan should maintain the reference rate to 0.50% Thursday and the inflation forecasts will probably be upward magazines. In addition, it is likely that the Bank of Canada leaves its target rate at 2.75% Wednesday, after Canadian inflation recorded a modest increase in June.
