The state of health of European banks It remains good, with results generally growing in 2024, even if there are divergences between the institutes that are still fighting with problems of Cost efficiency and the performance and banks that are trying to increase and diversify revenues.
Among the latter, a real waltz of acquisition is underway, which he reported The theme of the banking Risiko. According to Agency S & p The consolidation of the Italian banking sector is “inevitable”but not all operations have the same scope and the same potential.
Italian market towards consolidation
Remembering that, Italy, Monte dei Paschi di Siena He launched an opa on Mediobanca and Bper Banca on Banca Popolare di Sondrio (BPS), S&P explained that he considers consolidation in the Italian banking sector “inevitable”, since most banks will try to obtain further economies of scale and a better diversification of revenues to improve their own earning capacity, investing in innovation.
Despite this, iThe success of past mergers and acquisitions between banks, in Italy, it was fluctuating and not always characterized by success. But when can it be said that an aggregation is successful? And what are the factors that guarantee the goodness of an operation of M&A.
The successful hypotheses of Pop Sondrio and Astrobank
“In the case of Bper Banca e Banca Popolare Sondriowe think that the merger, if performed effectivelycould strengthen the market position of Bper Banca e Open the way to a more effective and diversified group“, S&P underlines, citing one of the many operations announced in the last period. A judgment that contrasts with the aspirations of the Lombard Institute, which presented a plan that focuses on the “Stand Alone” growth.
Among the specific cases examined by S&P also the “agreed” transaction with Alpha Bank has announced the intention to acquire Astrobank. The transaction would increase the Alpha Bank scale, which would reach a 10%market share, consolidating its third operator position behind Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank, and would help to maintain the momentum of profitability.
Commerzbank committed to resisting Unicredit
Then there is the complex position of Commerzbankwho reiterated on several occasions the unavailability to an aggregation with Unicredit. The German bank – recalls S&P – announced ambitious financial objectivesas part of the strategy to resist Unicredit.
However, the agency believes that the achievement of these targets revised up will depend on the maintenance of a strong momentum in the activities based on commissionsalso supported by Further acquisitioni, and from external factors that are outside the management control, such as the level of Interest rates.
The status of European banks
The profits of 2024 have Confirmed the positive trend Act since 2023, in the face of a solid profitability and overall robust financial metrics, in line with the expectations of S&P. The profitability of the fourth quarter of 2024 remained high, while the overall credit metrics were solid.
2024 is the second consecutive year in which the European banks have obtained, on average, an Rinclusion of the two -digit capital. – The agency underlines – Previous examples of similar performances date back to before the global financial crisis, when the capitalization levels were significantly lower and risk management and regulation were less advanced.
Despite a substantially positive picture, S&P believes that different uncertainties – mainly linked to external factors, such as commercial policies or geopolitics – continue to obscure the perspectives of European banks, which they would not be immune to a deterioration of the perspectives macroeconomic. Geopolitical risks could in fact reduce the trust of companies and lead to a disordered revaluation of risks on financial markets, with chain effects on banks and non -banks.
