In the vast caldera dei Campi Flegrei About there were about 70 volcanic eruptions in the last 15,000 years. Of these, only 3 or 4 were really violent, reaching the maximum possible intensity for this volcanic structure. In the event of a future eruption in a more or less close future – of which, it is good to reiterate it, there is no signal at the present time – the most probable scenario is that of aeruption of medium-low intensitytherefore comparable to the last eruption that occurred in the Flegrei fields, which in 1538 created Monte Nuovo.
Despite this, the risk linked to volcanic phenomena in the Phlegraean camps it cannot be underestimatedabove all considered the housing density of the area: even a small eruption could create large damage to things and people. We must also take into account that we will not know exactly where the next eruption can take place: it could hit any point in the entire area of the caldera, which is decidedly extended with his 12-13 kilometers in diameter.
We must keep in mind that even the seismic activity of the Campi Flegrei, who lately has been intensifying and has produced two shocks of in the last 10 months of magnitude 4.4one on March 13, 2025 and one on May 20, 2024, is a “collateral effect” of the volcanic activity of this area. The entire phenomenon of bradisism that produces earthquakes in the Phlegraean camps is a volcanic phenomenon, in which the fluids of magmatic origin make it raise and lower the soil, giving rise to frequent seismic swarms during lifting periods (currently underway in the Flegrei Campi since 2005).
From 2023 we are in one acute phase of positive phrasegree bradisism, but it is part of an ancient “Volcanic breath” With which the inhabitants of the area coexist for millennia without perhaps fully realizing it: you want for the slowness of the phenomenon, you want for the vast area that is interested in it, you want because there is not a very high volcanic cone that requires its presence – and the risk associated with it – on the population.
It is therefore a question that on the one hand is scientificwith institutions such as the INGV that monitor the phenomenon by trying to understand its operation, and on the other socialwith i citizens who must learn to live with the volcano and the institutions which should educate to volcanic risk, to the bradisismic one and invest in prevention As you are doing, among other things, with the evacuation plan for the Flegrei camps.
