In recent years, consumers have started hunting for discounts earlier and earlier, as generative AI and personalized recommendations have become the new standard in e-commerce. Algorithms help optimize pricing, increase conversion rates and directly impact retail margins.
Black Friday and markets
According to Adobe Analytics, online sales on Black Friday alone could grow 8.3% year-over-year, reaching $11.7 billion, and reach $253 billion (+5.3% year-over-year) for the entire holiday season. 56% of online transactions will be made via smartphone, and Buy Now Pay Later models will continue to grow in double digits (+11% year-on-year).
Another important aspect to consider is that Black Friday no longer ends in a single day of peak demand. In fact, consumption is distributed throughout the month of November, and even December, with Christmas shopping starting earlier and earlier. For this reason – explains Freedom24 – it is more accurate to observe not the peak of the official Black Friday (the last one in November), but the trend in demand over the four weeks. This is how the major funds are analyzing the season, and this approach offers a more accurate snapshot of the strength of consumption.
“Therefore, Black Friday should no longer be read with a set of sensational numbers, but as a real market indicator. In a late-cycle phase, in which the market evaluates the probability of a soft landing for the US economy and the prospects of a rate cut by the Fed, investors interpret Black Friday as a further test of the resilience of demand, rather than as a pretext to hunt for discounts. What matters is not emotion, but the quality of money: what do people buy people, how they finance their purchases and which platforms receive the most traffic”
said Francesco Bergamini, Head of Representative Office of Freedom24 in Italy.
Why it matters to the stock market
Black Friday does not determine the performance of stocks for the following year, but represents a useful indicator of the resilience of consumption in the final part of the year. Investors are using this as an additional calibration point for expectations ahead of the larger block of quarterly reports in Q4.
The holiday season is traditionally linked to household confidence levels, and solid sales are interpreted by the market as a sign of economic stability. This is particularly relevant for retail, e-commerce, BNPL, payment platforms, logistics and advertising ecosystems.
For investors, Black Friday is not a reason to open tactical positions on a single day. Rather, it is an informative indicator, useful for assessing the real stability of consumer demand at the end of the year: the strength of household spending, the quality of online conversion, the effectiveness of personalization via AI and the level of price sensitivity. This data helps calibrate expectations ahead of the fourth quarter earnings reports, especially in the retail, e-commerce, payments and BNPL sectors.
4 investment ideas
Black Friday reinforces the differences: companies with scalable infrastructure and control over the economy emerge as winners.
- Amazon (AMZN): Remains the biggest beneficiary of early demand thanks to Prime, proprietary brands, scale and logistics. In the event of a strong season, the company could see an increase in revenue and additional benefits from cost optimization.
- Shopify (SHOP): Represents a global e-commerce infrastructure outside of Amazon. The growth in the number of merchants, subscription models and economies of scale makes SHOP one of the most interesting stocks in a scenario of higher-than-expected demand.
- PayPal (PYPL): It is a pure payment infrastructure. Any acceleration in the volume of online transactions directly impacts the company’s bottom line. The growth in BNPL adoption remains a major tailwind on Black Friday.
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Google sees an increase in advertising load in this time frame. Search + YouTube are models that offer significant momentum in Q4. GOOGL remains one of the best tools for evaluating the dynamics of the advertising economy and the future cycle of advertising investments.
Black Friday is no longer about discounts. It is an x-ray of the consumer economy, especially in the United States. Through online sales performance, mobile-first behavior, depth of promotions and BNPL, we can understand whether consumers are showing resilience at the end of the year and whether demand will remain a growth driver in 2026.
“For retail investors, the conclusion is simple: less emotion, more attention to structure. Personalization through AI, advertising cycles and the quality of online conversions are becoming not a tactical factor, but a fundamental parameter for evaluating companies. And those who know how to correctly read this signal will be able to obtain an advantage long before the publication of the Q4 quarterly results”
explains Bergamini.
