The last opening of the week of the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds is negative. The differential between the two government bonds has in fact opened above 81 basis points, with yields particularly rising in light of the continuing instability in the Strait of Hormuz and Donald Trump’s threats to Iran.
A situation that has persisted for two months now and which, although it has returned from the peaks of early April, does not leave the bond markets calm. The timing of this peak is particularly unfortunate for Italy, given that the last BTP and BOT auctions of April will be held over the weekend.
The spread between BTPs and Bunds continues to grow
In the first minutes after the opening of the bond markets on 24 April 2026, the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds suddenly grew by 3.84% compared to the previous closing, reaching 81 basis points. Result dictated exclusively by the growth in the yields of the 10-year benchmark BTPs, on which the differential is measured, which reached an average of 3.85% yield. On the contrary, German Bunds remained at the same levels as yesterday, at 3.04%.
The increase in the spread appears to have been driven by instability in the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the area have destabilized the negotiations and the CNN revealed that the Trump administration would have a plan of attack ready against Iran’s maritime assets in case the indefinite ceasefire were to be violated.
Spain and France limit the damage
However, the other great European powers seem less exposed to this crisis than Italy. In addition to Germany, which as seen did not suffer any changes in the yields of its government bonds, Spain also limited the damage, with an increase in the spread of just one point, half that of Italy, compared to yesterday’s opening. The Bonos stood at a yield of 3.51%, with a spread of 47 points.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
|---|---|---|
| German Bunds | 3.04% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 3.85% | 81 |
| French Oats | 3.70% | 66 |
| Spanish bonos | 3.51% | 47 |
Similarly, French Oats also maintained yields and spreads similar to those of yesterday, with interest of 3.70% and a differential of 66 basis points. The OECD data released yesterday weighs heavily on Italy, estimating our country’s growth in 2026 at 0.4%.
The auctions at the end of April
Today the auction will be held for the Short Term BTPs which have been assigned the Isin code IT0005692410. Their expiry is scheduled for 28 February 2029. The Btp€i should also have been issued on the same day, but they will be replaced by another similar product in the future and have therefore been suspended.
The other auctions at the end of April will be:
- the Bots auction on April 28th;
- the auction of medium and long-term BTPs will take place on 29 April.
Two more auctions will be held at the beginning of May:
- the Bots auction on May 7th;
- the auction of medium and long-term BTPs will take place on 8 May.
