A two -speed week ends for the main European bags, with the issue of duties that continues to condition the sentiment of the investors and consequently the course of the share lists. On the penultimate day of contracted, the rates imposed by the USA to the main partners entered into force on 7 August, which for the European Union were set at 15%. In the meantime, the quarterly season continues relentlessly, while the operators reflect on the macro data that came during the week. In particular, those disappointing on the American labor market that have fueled the expectations of a cut of rates by the Fed in September.
The Bank of England cuts the cost of money as expected
Regarding the monetary policy, this week, the Bank of England gathered which decided with a vote to a restorative majority of cutting 25 base points the interest rates of reference on the pound, now at 4%. The decision, evidently controversial, comes in a context of persistent high inflation in the United Kingdom, with an average of 3.5% in the second quarter. According to a statement from the Bank of England, 5 members of the Directory voted in favor of the cut, while another 4 were against and would have preferred to keep rates at 4.25%. The British central bank maintains a prudent attitude for the next few months and does not give certainty on other interventions within the year, warning that it will not follow a predefined path and the committee will continue to respond to the accumulating of evidence.
The ECB does not intend to bind itself to a particular rate of rates
Even the ECB has also made it known that “it does not intend to bind itself to a particular route of the rates”. In the economic bulletin, the Eurotower explained that “a guided approach will follow”, and the decisions will be defined “from time to time to each meeting”. They will be based on the assessment of the prospects of inflation and the risks associated with them, considering the new economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of the basic inflation and the intensity of the transmission of monetary policy. In any case, the Board of Directors is “ready to adapt all the tools he has” as part of his mandate to ensure that inflation stabilizes durably on the medium -term objective.
Eurozone: greater growth in July, but the economy remains weak
To increase the possibility of a new cut to interest rates by the European Central Bank, in the second half of the year, is the inflation of the Eurozone services sector that showed signs of slowing down. “Costs are increasing at the slowest rate in nine months and lower than the long -term average. All this matches the recent data relating to the ECB’s wage indicators, or Wage Tracker, which in recent months report a slowdown in salary growth, which constitutes an essential component of the costs incurred by the tertiary sector”. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at the Hamburg Commercial Bank said it, analyzing the SME data of the July Eurozone.
Braking euro/temporary dollar, in the medium term single currency should return to strengthen itself
The negative reaction of the euro to the agreement on the duties between the EU and the USA was a temporary movement, already reabsorbed by the change of expectations on American monetary policy following the data on the labor market released on Friday 1 August. If we look at the theme of the commercial war, in reality the agreement does not favor the European economy, on the contrary. The asymmetrical conditions, explains Acopo Gerosa, Head of Investment Advisory of Vontobel Wealth Management SIM, have been widely analyzed by the market (duties at 15% in exchange for nothing, commitments to purchases from the USA for 750 billion dollars and promise to invest an additional 600). We also note that even a 15% rate, albeit lighter than the feared one of 25-30% or more, erodes the competitiveness of Europe and this effect is further amplified by the surge of the euro in the first half of the year.
However, apart from a momentary weakness of the euro in the days immediately following the announcement, the trend stopped as soon as other considerations emerged, adds the analyst who quotes the latest US data that show how much the economy is still solid, but the duties are starting to be felt.
Record gold with US duties on 1 kilo ingots
The prices of the gold still touch record after the new duties imposed by the United States on the imports of 1 -kilo ingots, the most common form negotiated on the Comex. The Future on the yellow metal touched a new historian at $ 3,534.10, and then lightly filed to $ 3,431. A move, that of the new duties on the imports imposed by the USA, seen by the insiders as a move that threatens to upset the global market of ingots and to inflict a new blow to Switzerland, the largest refining center in the world.
Oil, the OPEC+ confirms productive increase since September
The OPEC+ is not surprising and announces a new maxi production increase starting from the month of September, part of the rapid restoration strategy of the offer started by the eight members who had previously announced additional cuts to production for 2.2 million barrels per day.
The weekly performance of bags
The worst performance of the week is recorded by the London square which yields 0.41%. The drop in the Paris Stock Exchange are fractional (-0.37%). Frankfurt is placed among the ups and shows a climb of 0.40%, while Milan gains 1.5%. Madrid is the best square with a progress of almost 3%. The ending aims at two speeds also for the Wall Street bag.
The best and worst in Piazza Affari
In Piazza Affari, Best Performer is Campari with a +9,% followed by Mediobanca uphill of 9%. Relizes over 7% for MPS and Banca Mediolanum. Nexi (+7.5%), Tim (+7.2%) and Banca Generali (+5.6%) are also good. On the side of the discounts, he closes Reply (-6.5%), Buzzi (-5%) and Leonardo (-3.89%).
