First point: we are talking about Europe and not of the entire planet. Second point: in recent years, despite the climatic changes we are observing, The risk of deaths related to high or low temperatures has been reduced. Having made this necessary prolusion, they affect the results of a research conducted by the experts of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (Isglobal), conducted in collaboration with the Barcelona SuperComputing Center (BSC) and published in The Lancet Planetary Health. Because the study clearly shows how a S has been recorded in recent yearsiglying decrease in the risk of mortality related to the cold Compared to the first decade of the 2000s. Attention: in the same period there was also a reduction in the risk of deaths related to heat. But to a lesser extent.
The general results of the study
Experts examined the information relating to temperature and mortality of over 800 regions of 35 European countries for the period 2003-2020, to discover that the relative risk of death at the lowest temperatures decreased by 2% per year in the second decade considered to be compared to the first, against a relative risk of death at the highest temperatures dropped but with a rate equal to 1% per year. Traditionally, studies of this type have been based on fixed temperature thresholds to calculate risks, without considering that the vulnerability at identical temperatures is not the same in all parts of Europe.
To overcome this limitation, the team has developed a new concept: the Extreme risk temperature (ERT). By crossing the regional temperature and mortality data, this new approach has made it possible to calculate the temperature to which the risk of death exceeds a certain threshold for each geographical area. The researchers also took into account the mortality variations to reflect temperature adaptations over time. Using this methodology, the team observed that in the period 2003-2020 Europe recorded 2.07 days of dangerously lower cold (cold-round days) every year. On the contrary, dangerously high heat days (heat-rte days) have increased by 0.28 days a year.
The climate map
Be clear. The old continent did not find himself facing these situations in the same way. The regions of south-eastern Europe, despite the hottest conditions, have recorded a greater number of dangerously hot and cold dayswhich caused a greater risk of associated mortality.
“Over time we have become more skilled in facing low temperatures, a process known in the scientific field as ‘adaptation’. Also As for the heat, people are becoming more resilientalthough this improvement is less than the adaptation to the cold. Vulnerability to extreme temperatures varies considerably depending on the location, with more sensitive southern Europe regions to the temperature variations compared to those of northern Europe. This disparity is partly due to socio -economic factors, including inadequate housing, a lower public health expenditure and limited access to social support or assistance for vulnerable populations “
He explains in a note for the printing of the Zhao-Yue Chen center, the first signatories of the research.
According to Joan Ballester Claramunt, researcher Isglobal and main author of the study
“The results show that, although Europe has accomplished significant progress in cold adaptationthe strategies to face the mortality related to the heat have been less effective. An investigation from 2024 revealed that only 20 of the 38 European countries have implemented temperature surveillance systems and 17 countries still do not have health action plans related to heat (Hhap). Our study highlights the need for further progress in current adaptation measures to heat and in the health action plans related to heat “.
Hot attention and ozone
Speaking only of thermal variations, in any case it can be reductive. Thus the scholars also examined the frequency with which the extreme temperatures occurred in days with levels of pollution above the Limitates recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The co-lurrence of these two events, known as “composed days”, occurred in 60% of the days with extreme temperatures and in 65% of the days with extreme temperatures.
Over time, these combined days have decreased, except for the combination of dangerously hot days and high levels of pollution from ozonewhich has increased at a rate of 0.26 days a year. This is a secondary pollutant, that is, not produced directly from the discharges. In order to train, in fact, nitrogen oxide must come into contact with sunlight. When this happens, this toxic compound is formed, which has nothing to do with the “ozone hole” that we talk about when discussing solar radiation.
On the problems front, some people may have annoyance as soon as you pass, albeit slightly, the alarm threshold. And already at these levels the gas can begin to do damage, irritating the bronchiin two ways. The presence of the gas tends to make the caliber of these natural “roads” of the air narrow, as happens in the normal inflammation processes. They can appear at this stage coughs and difficulty breathing difficultieswhich in the elderly can take on the characteristics of real annex. In addition, ozone makes bronchi more sensitive to the action of any Allergens present in the environment. The most sensitive to high ozone values are the children and the elderly, who adapt with greater difficulty to the “perverse” mixture of the gases in the air. It also more easily has lung disease disorders, such as Emphysema or chronic bronchitis. Finally, those who have a “weak” heart or have already had a heart attack can have problems, because they are forced to breathe badly.
